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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 464993  
Subject: Control Panel: Risk-off trade Date: 11/16/2012 11:54 AM
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I don't have time to write much about the Control Panel today. (Preparing for Shabbos during short winter Fridays is hectic.)

I am posting because qazulight said "oversold."

Far be it from me to contradict any METAR ;-), but the Control Panel is breaking down across the board into a serious risk-off trade. Stocks and stock sentiment indicators are falling. Treasury yields are dropping and the dollar is rising. Gold is holding steady, but the ratio of the SPX:gold is falling. Commodities are falling. The high-yield bond index is falling.

Even the German stock index (DAX) is in a falling trend, though more gradual than the SPX. Spanish 10-year bond yields are gradually rising, though not in the danger zone yet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/17/business/economy/industria...


Industrial Production Declines
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
New York Times, November 16, 2012


WASHINGTON — Hurricane Sandy depressed industrial output in the United States in October, while production of machinery and equipment in particular declined sharply, reflecting a more cautious outlook among businesses, the Federal Reserve said Friday. ...

Manufacturing has weakened since spring, in part because companies have scaled back purchases of long-lasting goods that signal investment plans. That trend appeared to continue in October...

Hurricane Sandy also hurt the economy, although most economists expect the storm’s impact to fade in the coming weeks. ...
[end quote]

The Fear and Greed Index has just dropped slightly into "Extreme Fear."

I'm a contrarian like qaz, but I see the current Control Panel as a falling knife that still has a way to fall. Is it "oversold?" Sure, if Congress avoids the fiscal cliff and if the economy improves. Those are big "ifs."

Wendy (see data below)

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$INDU,$S...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$IRX,$US...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$STOX5E,...

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
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