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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 457440  
Subject: Control Panel: Topping? Date: 4/20/2014 8:59 PM
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The pundits say, "Sell in May and go away." They also say that a midterm election year is often a down year for the stock market.

Last year, 2013, "Sell in May and go away" was bad advice as the stock market advanced 30% on an international wave of central bank money pumping.

The stock indexes have remained in a tight range for the past month. The S&P500 set a new high on April 3 but then fell back into the range. NH-NL is dropping. Bullish percent for the NASD 100 has dropped to 40% as momentum stocks were slammed. NYSE bullish percent is down to 65%. The Fear & Greed Index is in Fear. The yield curve has flattened slightly at the long end. Is this a topping pattern?

The mungofitch indicators -- the "99 day rule" and "lagged MA" -- are bullish.

Copper is stable. Gold has returned to its long-term channel. Energy prices are climbing. So are food prices. The Fed omits these from their "core inflation" statistic but family budgets will be squeezed.

The Ukraine crisis appears to be worsening as local militias (really just masked, armed thugs) appear to be slipping out of Moscow's control. However, the markets appear to be indifferent. The impact, if any, isn't likely to be short-term.

Most markets are continuing their trends.

Financial stress remains very low. The money supply continues to grow, supported by growing Federal Reserve assets. Velocity and the Multiplier continue to be low.

There are no strong market-moving stories in the press.

Is this a topping pattern? A "top" implies that it will soon fall. There's no evidence of a trigger for that.

The METAR is for stability and probably for a rebound in the pattern we have seen since the beginning of 2013. There is no change in risk preference so the trends will probably continue in the short term.

Wendy

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$USD,$SP...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$STOX5E,...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$HSI,$ST...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$USD,$XA...





http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$INDU,$S...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$IRX,$US...

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&m...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSBKCRNS
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