UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 457574  
Subject: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/24/2013 4:39 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 17
The Control Panel trends in the U.S. flattened this week. The stock indexes stabilized, as did Treasury yields.

The Fear & Greed Index dropped into Greed (70) after several weeks of Extreme Greed. All stock sentiment indicators were still bullish. The "mungofitch lagged MA" was strongly bullish, though it dropped a teeny bit. The stock indexes did not set new highs this week, though they didn't lose much.

The stock picture in the U.S. is still strongly bullish. The flattening may be the start of a broad top. Mungofitch has pointed out that tops are usually broad, while bottoms are ususally sharp. Or the flattening may be a pause in another rise to new heights.

European stock indexes fell mildly due to the Cyprus situation. The euro is still falling and the USD is still rising.

MZM (the big boyz money supply) and M2 (the broad household money supply) have stabilized in the past few weeks. YOY M3 (the calculated money supply) is still growing faster than the GDP and faster than the inflation rate.

The multiplier and velocity are low and dropping, otherwise consumer price inflation would be higher.

Fiscal stimulus from personal consumption expenditures (some of which is debt-financed) is rising. So is government debt (fiscal stimulus). This is helping stimulate the economy, though GDP growth is slow. Corporate profits are high and rising as of 3Q2012.

Financial conditions are loose and stable in the U.S.

The MSM is covering the Cyprus problem. The U.S. markets are watchfully waiting and not reacting negatively. Gold ticked up a little, but the SPX:gold ratio is still near a 2-year high.

The National Association of Realtors was optimistic and unemployment seems to be easing a little. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose. The Institute for Supply Management showed continuing growth.

To a contrarian, the optimism in the stock market has been too high, so a flattening of the trend is actually encouraging.

For the time being, there is no reason to worry...barring a sudden crisis from Europe.

Wendy


http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$INDU,$S...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$IRX,$US...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$STOX5E,...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$USD,$XA...

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&m...

http://www.nowandfutures.com/articles/20060426M3b,_repos_&am...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TGDEF

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI

http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/?navItemNumber=22442
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts 10+ Year Anniversary! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418775 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/24/2013 5:05 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.


...there is no reason to worry...barring a sudden crisis from Europe.

Wendy



}};-()

Print the post Back To Top
Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418778 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/24/2013 5:36 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
MZM (the big boyz money supply) and M2 (the broad household money supply) have stabilized in the past few weeks. YOY M3 (the calculated money supply) is still growing faster than the GDP and faster than the inflation rate.

If the definition of inflation is an increase in money supply, then how can money supply increase faster than inflation?

Poz

Print the post Back To Top
Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418782 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/24/2013 6:36 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 3
<If the definition of inflation is an increase in money supply, then how can money supply increase faster than inflation?>

The CPI-U, a carefully massaged and hedonically adjusted measurement of consumer prices, depends upon supply/demand in the consumer sector.

I report the official 12-month CPI-U.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1...

John Williams backs out the real numbers and finds a much higher inflation rate.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

In any case, the amount of money changing hands in the hands of consumers is much lower than the amount of money issued to the banks by the Fed. First, because the Money Multiplier <1. Also, the Velocity of money is very low. John Hussman explains how that suppresses the inflation rate.

Wendy

Print the post Back To Top
Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418784 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/24/2013 6:44 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
In any case, the amount of money changing hands in the hands of consumers is much lower than the amount of money issued to the banks by the Fed. First, because the Money Multiplier <1. Also, the Velocity of money is very low. John Hussman explains how that suppresses the inflation rate.

Yeah, I've read quite a few "explanations".....but all those bright people didn't prevent the dotcom bubble, nor the housing derivatives bubble. I suspect that they're not preventing the bubble that the "money multiplier" oh so fortunately misses in its precise-to-several-decimal-points calculus.

Like they said in another famous work of fiction....nothing to see behind the curtain, move along now!

Poz
(getting more cynical as time marches on, I suppose)

Print the post Back To Top
Author: pwhitten Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418951 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/26/2013 3:36 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
The CPI-U, a carefully massaged and hedonically adjusted measurement of consumer prices . . .

I don't recall learning this methodology when I took a course in statistics years ago :>)

Peg

Print the post Back To Top
Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418953 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/26/2013 4:04 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 7
<The CPI-U, a carefully massaged and hedonically adjusted measurement of consumer prices . . .

I don't recall learning this methodology when I took a course in statistics years ago :>) >

Maybe because you studied mathematical statistics and not political statistics? ;-)

Wendy

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 418976 of 457574
Subject: Re: Control Panel: Trends flatten Date: 3/26/2013 10:30 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
I report the official 12-month CPI-U.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1......

John Williams backs out the real numbers and finds a much higher inflation rate.


And yet the prices of actual things, for actual sale, by actual merchants, in actual transactions, doesn't reflect his "higher" inflation at all.

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

Some people might begin to wonder if "actual prices" trump Williams' "higher inflation rate."

Also, the Velocity of money is very low. John Hussman explains how that suppresses the inflation rate.

Would this be in the same way he explained how hyperinflation was just around the corner - back in 2009?

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=108144.0;wap2

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement