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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76237  
Subject: Re: Strategy comparison S&P500 vs. IUL [rev 1] Date: 4/8/2013 5:08 PM
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Corrected Allianz backtest.
There was an error in my spreadsheet -- the IUL fee calculation took out too much. And IUL withdrawls were double-counted.

===================================
Starting 1/1/1965, accumulate until 1/1/2013.

Initial $10,000 and add $1000/mo. IUL has load & fees as above.
On 1/1/2013:
S&P final balance: $12,003,000

IUL final balance: $2,789,000 <<WRONG
IUL final balance: $2,852,000 <<Corrected

===============================
Deccumulation...

S&P B&H start $5000/mo withdrawal on 1/1/1970 with a starting balance of $12,003,000.
Final value 20 years later, 1/1/1990: $95,615,000 (not a typo).

IUL, same parameters as before, starting balance of $2,852,000. <<Corrected
Final value: $5,627,000 (investment account) -$2,310,000 (loan account) = $3,317,000 <<WRONG
Final value: $7,951,485 (investment account) -$2,127,897 (loan account) = $5,823,589 <<Corrected

Straight withdrawal, rather than loan-type withdrawal. << NEW
Final value: $5,797,317 << NEW

Total withdrawals: $1,200,000 either way.

====================
Now, 20 years of inflation is going to have a big effect on the buying power of that $5000/mo. Let's increase the withdrawal by 2.5% a year to compensate for inflation. The withdrawal in the last year is
$14,100 per month. <<WRONG
$7,993 per month. <<Corrected

Total withdrawn: $1,533,000

S&P B&H final value: $94,571,000

IUL, same parameters as before, starting balance of $2,852,000
Final value: $5,151,000 (investment account) - $2,811,000 (loan account) = $2,340,000 <<WRONG
Final value: $7,951,485 (investment account) - $2,603,415 (loan account) = $5,348,071 <<Corrected

Straight withdrawal, rather than loan-type withdrawal. << NEW
Final value: $5,309,883 << NEW
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