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Hello Fools: My broker called me today to mention data that he was receiving from several technical analysts. Their thinking was that the market may move up next six weeks to two months but after that they were expecting a fairly serious correction in the market, say 5 - 10%.

I believe they felt the S&P 500 would peak at around 1220 but would fall to around 1120 by the end of 2005. Has anyone heard anything similar or does anyone have a similar opinion of where the market is heading?

Fletch52
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No. of Recommendations: 10
>> Hello Fools: My broker called me today to mention data that he was receiving from several technical analysts. Their thinking was that the market may move up next six weeks to two months but after that they were expecting a fairly serious correction in the market, say 5 - 10%. <<

Ask them when they last calibrated their crystal ball.

Seriously, though -- where do they get this stuff? Keep in mind that many brokers and "analysts" wanted their clients to "buy, buy, buy" in early 2000 and "sell, sell, sell" in late 2002.

While I'm a long-term indexer and asset allocator, I do believe it's possible to be a successful stock picker with a valuation-based discipline and a LOT of diligence. I personally don't believe ANYONE can regularly be successful (over decades) by buying and selling based on the broad market. I suppose one can use valuation models for the market overall, but there are too many wild-cards in that for me to be comfortable with it.

#29
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"I personally don't believe ANYONE can regularly be successful (over decades) by buying and selling based on the broad market."

Traders use the general market to get a feel for which side to enter a trade. Day traders use broad market charts to determine which way a market is heading for their trading period and yes they do make money doing this.

COlossaL
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In general, technical analysis is about what is happening now. No decent technician makes long-term predictions of the sort you mention.

The exception is the Elliot Wave guys, but that stuff is the most unreliable guide I have ever seen.

At this point we are in an uptrend. That will change because it always does, but nobody can know when.

Just ride the wave as long as it is a wave.
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Fletch52 writes,

Hello Fools: My broker called me today to mention data that he was receiving from several technical analysts. Their thinking was that the market may move up next six weeks to two months but after that they were expecting a fairly serious correction in the market, say 5 - 10%.

I believe they felt the S&P 500 would peak at around 1220 but would fall to around 1120 by the end of 2005. Has anyone heard anything similar or does anyone have a similar opinion of where the market is heading?


Sounds like your broker is trying to churn your portfolio and drum up a few commissions to fund his Summer vacation.

intercst
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I believe they felt the S&P 500 would peak at around 1220 but would fall to around 1120 by the end of 2005. Has anyone heard anything similar or does anyone have a similar opinion of where the market is heading?

Fletch52


My crystal ball hasn't worked for years. I think the vertical hold is out,

cliff
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No. of Recommendations: 19
No offense, but if they could tell where the market would be in six months with even 60% reliability then they could make easily make billions in options trading in just a few years.

Do you really think that they have found out this valuable secret and decided that your account is really worth more to them than the billions they could make in options trading?

Greg
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Fletch52 said:

Hello Fools: My broker called me today to mention data that he was receiving from several technical analysts. Their thinking was that the market may move up next six weeks to two months but after that they were expecting a fairly serious correction in the market, say 5 - 10%.

I believe they felt the S&P 500 would peak at around 1220 but would fall to around 1120 by the end of 2005. Has anyone heard anything similar or does anyone have a similar opinion of where the market is heading?


Let me guess: this broker wanted you to do something? Am I right? I'm sure he wasn't calling you just for the heck of it. You always have to know the motives of the messenger.

JLP

http://allthingsfinancial.blogspot.com
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Following the foolish advise of analysts faithfully for the next 10 years probably will result in loosing money 45% or 75% of the time. Now if you knew it was a 75% loosing proposition, you do use this bunch as a contrary indicator.

If you really have faith, sell out on Tuesday and wait for the "fairly serious correction" -- then buy back in.

Gordon
Atlanta
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Day traders use broad market charts to determine which way a market is heading for their trading period and yes they do make money doing this.

Sure they make money. Lots and lots of it.

Then they lose it, along with everything they own, after about the 3rd margin call.

Marc
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Day traders are like gamblers - I am NOT saying they ARE gamblers, although they may well be. I am saying one of their behaviors is similar to gamblers, in the sense you will always hear about their wins, their fabulous trip to Vegas, the new car they bought with their winnings, and so forth. Stories abound. But when they lose, they get very quiet. So to some, it may appear everybody is winning since that is the bulk of the publicity. I imagine a few, very few, daytraders make money consistently but no where close to the proportions you hear about.





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One of my favorite cartoons shows a guy getting advice from a booth that has posted a sign which reads, "Advice." The advice he is being given is this, "Never take investment advice from someone who works for a living."
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