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Author: MrPlunger Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 457162  
Subject: Credit Bubble Date: 2/5/2013 6:09 AM
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A back-to-the-future piece for METAR. Here's Doug Noland's latest

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinvie...

In April 2009, I began warning of the risks of fueling a “global government finance Bubble.” I didn’t fully appreciate what was unfolding back in ’09. But it was clear that the Federal Reserve, Treasury and global policymakers were prepared to do just about anything. Similar to mortgage finance in 2002, government finance was already demonstrating powerful Bubble characteristics by 2008. The mortgage finance Bubble had collapsed, yet a potentially even greater Credit Bubble was gathering momentum. After all, government finance enjoyed greater “moneyness” than ever – and over-issuance began in earnest. Massive federal deficits coupled with Federal Reserve monetization held the possibility for the biggest Bubble of them all. It’s already historic.

In somewhat of a replay of the nineties, our Credit system has again experienced an historic transformation. The nineties version was about unfettered market-based Credit. Today, it’s unfettered government-based finance. Both are about risk obfuscations, misperceptions and mispricing. Few appreciated how this finance distorted asset markets and the structure of the real economy from the mid-nineties through 2008. Few appreciate the nature of today’s Credit Bubble. Seemingly no one recognizes how profoundly the government finance Bubble is inflating system incomes.

For perspective, let’s start with some expenditure data from the U.S. budget. We know that the federal government ran unprecedented Trillion dollar plus deficits for four straight years, though I’d argue that the aggregate deficit doesn’t do justice to the impact of surging federal spending levels. For enlightenment, I’ll highlight spending growth by major federal agency. In just four years (2007-2011), Social Security expenditures jumped 24% to $731bn. National Defense was up 28% to $706bn. Income Security surged 63% to $597bn. Medicare inflated 29% to $486bn. Health Services was up 40% to $373bn. Veterans Benefits & Services surged 75% to $127bn. Transportation was up 28% to $93bn.



The original is a lot longer.



But it is clear that the next big issue is going to be "who pays for all the communal debts we've run up?".

It's almost like the whole world is full of banana republics where a dictator runs up debts in the name of the state, takes the money, then the next guy very reasonably says maybe the community shouldn't be on the hook for paying it back. (Before carrying on and doing the same again.)

Substitute cities, states, countries. And whilst some city mangers paid themselves fat-cat rates, mostly the problem is promises made to friends and electorates. All over the place unfunded contracts are being given out, promises made to give in the future but no admission of the need for the public entity to receive in the future. In the case of municipalities, simple black holes, for more sophisticated entities just mush about balancing budgets eventually when the crisis blows over.

Most depressing is that some of the smartest minds like Krugman and Stiglitz endorse this spend spend spend now and the future will sort itself out. Isn't this short termism exactly what got us into trouble in the first place?

Non-asset backed communal commitments and debt are going to be "interesting".
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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 415097 of 457162
Subject: Re: Credit Bubble Date: 2/5/2013 8:57 AM
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"who pays for all the communal debts we've run up?"

Everybody in the world will pay. We've been exporting our inflation all over the world, leading especially to increases in the price of what people must have: food.

It will be nice to be the reserve currency as we inflate our debt away. That is, until it isn't nice anymore or until we are no longer the reserve currency.

Eventually, the food and other commodity-influenced prices will rise in this country to the point at which everyone notices - even the media and people who receive government benefits.

It will then be clear that we, too, are paying for all our communal debts.

The price we'll pay for this borrowed prosperity is worth the price, no matter when the bill comes due. Isn't the present "prosperous" economy just wonderful? </sarcasm off>.

I fear that we have sold our birthright (our future) for a bowl of pottage (temporary relief through debt).

Genesis 25:33-34

"... So Esau swore an oath, thereby selling all his rights as the firstborn to his brother, Jacob. Then Jacob gave Esau some bread and lentil stew. Esau ate the meal, then got up and left. He showed contempt for his rights as the firstborn."

Holy Bible, New Living Translation (©2007)

http://bible.cc/genesis/25-33.htm
http://bible.cc/genesis/25-34.htm

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Author: jerryab Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 415119 of 457162
Subject: Re: Credit Bubble Date: 2/5/2013 1:58 PM
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"... So Esau swore an oath, thereby selling all his rights as the firstborn to his brother, Jacob. Then Jacob gave Esau some bread and lentil stew. Esau ate the meal, then got up and left. He showed contempt for his rights as the firstborn."

LOL !!!

It is a simple contract--and it benefits everyone. There is no context to discuss how "fair" such a deal might be to both sides....

In order to have a family, one must first survive. Esau would not survive without food and water. He gave up something that did not (yet) exist--but was hopeful he would have in the future. More importantly, his family line would continue independently if he had more children--who would not be encumbered.

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Author: SuisseBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 415130 of 457162
Subject: Re: Credit Bubble Date: 2/5/2013 3:34 PM
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It will be nice to be the reserve currency as we inflate our debt away. That is, until it isn't nice anymore or until we are no longer the reserve currency.


At which point it would be nice not having to fork over increasing amounts of dollars dwindling in value to other countries who for some reason have American oil under their sand...


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-mar...

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 415131 of 457162
Subject: Re: Credit Bubble Date: 2/5/2013 3:42 PM
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Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

...

At which point it would be nice not having to fork over increasing amounts of dollars dwindling in value to other countries who for some reason have American oil under their sand...



SB,

Yup, one of the problems with winning the currency race to the bottom is trying to pay for "stuff" you need that comes from countries that lost the race?

Of course the oil isn't much use if you can't get it to the refinery and thence to market?

All repeat after me... "PIPELINES, PIPELINES YEAH PIPELINES"!!!!


**** absolutely not signed ****

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