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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1966611  
Subject: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 9:34 AM
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At least, that is my prediction. We will see if I am right.

I am projecting an increase in the crime rate because I believe many people are left without a safety net and will decide they have little or nothing to lose.

Consider:

Homelessness is at record levels in places, yet both private contributions and (at least in some places) government funding to help the homeless are down.

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/national/18HOME.html

The Federal government does not seem very interested in helping. As an example, "last April, President Bush proudly noted that he was proposing a two-thirds increase in a relatively small but well-regarded program of grants to the states to improve child welfare. ... As in prior years, the grants were to be automatic, not subject to the uncertainties of the annual appropriations process. ... The administration now has abandoned that commitment. It pretends still to be supporting the increase, but only if the appropriators can find the necessary funds. ...if the administration believes in the program, it must then make room for it within the appropriations process. Instead, to help pay for the president's costly tax cuts, it has mainly been trying hard to reduce the sum the appropriators have available."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52499-2001Dec16.html

Add to this the fact that many states have implemented welfare reform which could throw thousands off welfare during the Bush administration, and that due to budget cuts money to fund more welfare might not be available even if the laws are changed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/17/nyregion/17WELF.html

Good Luck,
Z
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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99915 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 9:47 AM
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Homelessness is at record levels in places,

Overheard in the NYTimes newsroom:

Oh no! A Republican is in the White House! Quick! You, you, and you: start running homeless stories!

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Author: tgrmn Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99917 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 10:01 AM
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z,

What happened during the depression to the crime rate? Was that Bush's fault too or Roosevelt's?

What 'causes' crime? Having some welfare program in place doesn't 'cure' something in people that's defective. I was in a McDonalds last week with folks from a shelter filtering in. All were well fed and adequately clothed. I was somewhat surprised to see they had enough money for cigarettes.

I dropped off some stuff to a shelter over a week ago but they only wanted the sweaters and coats, stocked up they told me. The Salvation Army took the rest.

Have you been to a shelter lately? How are they doing in your area?

Tigerman



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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99924 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 10:32 AM
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I don't believe it's conclusive that crime goes down in a recession or depression. It may be more true that the nature of crime changes, say from violent crime to property crime.

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Author: SupplySider Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99925 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 10:39 AM
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I predict it will rise, but not for economic reasons.

Courts are starting to throw out "Three Strikes" laws, so there will be more career criminals out of prison.

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Author: mcemerson Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99942 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 11:19 AM
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At least, that is my prediction. We will see if I am right.
I am projecting an increase in the crime rate because I believe many people are left without a safety net and will decide they have little or nothing to lose.


At least for this year. We had 4000 murders added to the total in one day. It doesn't take ESP to make that prediction come true.

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Author: foolme1111 Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99957 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 11:50 AM
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I am projecting an increase in the crime rate because I believe many people are left without a safety net and will decide they have little or nothing to lose.

Consider:

Homelessness is at record levels in places, yet both private contributions and (at least in some places) government funding to help the homeless are down.

___________________

I'm glad that you pointed out the hard correlation between the rates of crime and homelessness. These people who would steal because they can't get a hand out are precisely the ones we should put in jail. All they ever do is take; they will never contribute positively to society.



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Author: JimB100 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99958 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 11:57 AM
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My experience with the homeless in the San Francisco Bay Area is that a very, very high percentage of them are mentally ill and should be in mental institutions - for their own welfare. Does anyone know whether the stats support this view? Children, of course, are a completely different matter, but getting the mentally ill off the streets would, it seems to me, make the problem much more manageable.

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99964 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 12:07 PM
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What happened during the depression to the crime rate?

I don't know. I did find one table that indicated a "great increase" in crime from 1930 to 1940 FWIW.

http://www.uaa.alaska.edu/just/just110/crime1.html

Was that Bush's fault too or Roosevelt's?

Nope.

What 'causes' crime?

Many different things.

Have you been to a shelter lately?

Nope.

How are they doing in your area?

I don't know.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99972 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 12:34 PM
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I'm glad that you pointed out the hard correlation between the rates of crime and homelessness. These people who would steal because they can't get a hand out are precisely the ones we should put in jail. All they ever do is take; they will never contribute positively to society.

Don't put words in my mouth. I did not point out a hard correlation. I do not know if one exists or not.

The rest of your comments speak far more about you than about anyone else.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99974 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 12:37 PM
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My experience with the homeless in the San Francisco Bay Area is that a very, very high percentage of them are mentally ill and should be in mental institutions - for their own welfare. Does anyone know whether the stats support this view?

Antedotal evidence in one of the links I provided indicated shelters were seeing more families as opposed to the mentally ill, but I do not know of any hard statistics.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: foolme1111 Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99979 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 12:49 PM
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Don't put words in my mouth. I did not point out a hard correlation. I do not know if one exists or not.

zman, Your words: "I am projecting an increase in the crime rate because I believe many people are left without a safety net and will decide they have little or nothing to lose."
___________________

You seem to be pointing out a correlation, or at least predicting one. My ensuing comments were intended to be satirical, which you would have realized had you also realized how ridiculous your prediction was in the first place.



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Author: DonDNH Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 99986 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 1:02 PM
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Snippet on the news last night suggested the recent increase in crime is due to police being diverted from crime fighting to anti-terrorism and security problems. Don't see how that is the result of any changes in the "safety net" available to the criminals. It seems to me to be a result of opertunistic criminals.

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100007 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 1:20 PM
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You seem to be pointing out a correlation, or at least predicting one.

Safety nets come in many varieties, not just handouts. During the depression the CCC and the WPA were examples of safety nets that I would not consider to be handouts.

You are correct I did not recognize the rest of you comments as satire. They did not seem that out of line compared to some opinions people have expressed on this board.

I probably could have done a lot more to expand and clarify my opinion but, for a change, I decided to keep it short.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: DonDNH Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100039 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 2:22 PM
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Safety nets come in many varieties, not just handouts. During the depression the CCC and the WPA were examples of safety nets that I would not consider to be handouts.


Sort of like WorkFare?

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Author: tgrmn Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100053 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 2:48 PM
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...My experience with the homeless in the San Francisco Bay Area is that a very, very high percentage of them are mentally ill and should be in mental institutions - for their own welfare. Does anyone know whether the stats support this view? Children, of course, are a completely different matter, but getting the mentally ill off the streets would, it seems to me, make the problem much more manageable.

It's unfortunate that some 'progressive' thinkers liberated these folks from the institutions they were in without regard for their welfare.

They got them their 'freedom', and brought back the delusions and anxiety and dispair the facilities were managing while providing clean and safe surroundings. Not all of them needed institutionalized but some had no support or coping skills, but that wasn't important. Now it's important to the 'progressives' to see that these folks get to vote every few years while not giving a rat's a$$ about them the rest of the time.

Tigerman

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100077 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 3:37 PM
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It's unfortunate that some 'progressive' thinkers liberated these folks from the institutions they were in without regard for their welfare.

They got them their 'freedom', and brought back the delusions and anxiety and dispair the facilities were managing while providing clean and safe surroundings. Not all of them needed institutionalized but some had no support or coping skills, but that wasn't important. Now it's important to the 'progressives' to see that these folks get to vote every few years while not giving a rat's a$$ about them the rest of the time.


Wasn't it a Reagan administration program that "liberated these folks" as you put it?

As I recall there was mixed support for this program from both liberals and conservatives.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: Spazzard One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100085 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 3:59 PM
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At least we'll get an honest count...

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Author: Vile Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100099 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 5:08 PM
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zman49,
"Have you been to a shelter lately?

Nope."


Geez, and I thought all you leftie lucy's hung out there when you weren't posting here. Kinda like how you think us righty tighties all hang out at the nearest clan rally when we aren't posting here. See, I saved you the trouble of a retort. ;) Ain't I special.

Chill, just trying to crack smiles all around.

Cheers,

Vile
NEVER SAY DIE!!!

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Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100144 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 7:58 PM
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Hypothesis: Overheard in the NYTimes newsroom:
Oh no! A Republican is in the White House! Quick! You, you, and you: start running homeless stories!


Data test: http://www.nytimes.com Advanced Search

Search for "homeless" from Feb 1, xxxx to Dec 18, xxxx

Results
Year    Party in White House     Number of stories returned

2001 Republican 635
2000 Democrat 736
1999 Democrat 780
1998 Democrat 683

Fact analysis: Fewer stories about "homeless" in the New York Times during identical months of a Republican administration.

Anticipated Theory: Sept 11 skewed the news stories by crowding out these stores this year during the past few months.

Search for "homeless" from Feb 1, xxxx to September 9, xxxx

Results
Year    Party in White House     Number of stories returned

2001 Republican 440
2000 Democrat 490
1999 Democrat 458
1998 Democrat 469

Factual analysis: More stories in the New York Times during a Democratic administration.

Conclusion: Another right-wing crackpot unsubstantiated piece of drivel.

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Author: zman49 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100151 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 8:26 PM
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Chill, just trying to crack smiles all around.

Thanks Vile. You got me past the smile into LOL land.

Good Luck,
Z

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Author: Vile Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100165 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 9:38 PM
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zman49,
"Thanks Vile. You got me past the smile into LOL land."

No problem zman, it's what I live for. Truly. =)

You know, in real life, I was once refered to often as zman.

Cheers,

Vile
NEVER SAY DIE!!!!

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Author: Vile Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100170 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 9:54 PM
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GoofyHoofy,
"Conclusion: Another right-wing crackpot unsubstantiated piece of drivel."

Oooooo. Talk to me dirty some more big boiiii. Sorry, feeling a bit fungible tonight. Must be the Nyquil. Never could hold my meds.

Vile
NEVER SAY DIE!!!

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Author: 1946dodge Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100179 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/18/2001 10:43 PM
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I believe you are right. But this is true in any recession / depression where people are losing everything.
It is very important that the government provide a safety net for people thrown out of work.

What??, you say? Have the federal government step in and get in the way of the sacred free market???/

Well, the truth is, since we have systematically allowed companies in this country to export manufacturing and other jobs overseas, we have a nation of people whose skills have been watered down by a bunch of computer programs and plain old bullsh*t.

Skill in making products here has been replaced with skill in making powerpoint presentations discussing abstract money making attachments to the making of goods (sales, insurance, project management of projects with no content, etc.)

We have no factories, no skilled workers making wealth by making products. These skills have been sold out by the companies that enjoy the protection of our police and armed forces (which we pay for) so that they could have the goods made offshore at slave labor cost, so they can sell them here. We buy a 100 dollar VCR made in a sweat shop in China or Korea, and when it breaks, we throw it away and buy another one for 75 bucks. We polute with the discarded item, and we remove the necessity and job opportunity and skill development of the repairman.

We would be better off making them here for 300 bucks and fixing the damn thing when it breaks.

SO we allowed our country to lose its skills and manufacturing ability and now all the fluff jobs are dissappearing, leaving people with huge bills and desparation.

But don't let me scare you. Go out and buy that Japanese car, Chinese VCR, with your unemployment checks.

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Author: PK227 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100200 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 2:11 AM
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I would suggest that you start donating money to homeless programs and encourage your friends to do likewise. More govt involvement will just make the problem more expensive. Bet if you send your money directly to the providers, you'll be more attentive to how they spend it.

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Author: PK227 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100201 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 2:17 AM
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"allowed companies"??? We have been hearing "global economy" preached from the media and the government for years. "get used to it...we're in a global economy". What should companies do? Manufacture products here for $25.00 a piece or overseas for 25 cents? Stay in business competing in the "global economy", or go broke trying to hire American unionized workers to produce products nobody will buy because they are too expensive? Maybe this global economy is inevitable but don't think it's to our benefit in the long run.

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Author: ericb888 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100204 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 2:29 AM
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PK227 wrote:

"I would suggest that you start donating money to homeless programs and encourage your friends to do likewise. More govt involvement will just make the problem more expensive. Bet if you send your money directly to the providers, you'll be more attentive to how they spend it. "


And what is unfortunately depressing is how often, when people start looking directly at how large charities spend it, they come away disillusioned. The large charities sometimes appear to rival the government itself in their bureaucratic inefficiencies... there appears to be little inspection by anyone to make sure the charities are actually getting adequate results with their money. I wonder if anyone's ever studied larger vs. smaller charities... I wonder if the latter might be demonstrably more effective.

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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100221 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 9:22 AM
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Not quite.

You also have to normalize for page, location on page, whether the story makes national news.

Conclusion: Another left-wing crackpot skewing statistics to call the righ-wing crackpot names.

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Author: doezidotes Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100383 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 5:23 PM
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It seems the NY Times gets more frenetic over the homeless during election years.

"homeless" advanced search, NY Times

21 Jan 2001 - 18 Dec 2001
+Republican = 37
+Democrat = 20

21 Jan 2000 - 20 Jan 2001
+Republican = 72
+Democrat = 37

21 Jan 1999 - 20 Jan 2000
+Republican = 80
+Democrat = 34

21 Jan 1998 - 20 Jan 1999
+Republican = 49
+Democrat = 41

21 Jan 1997 - 20 Jan 1998
+Republican = 63
+Democrat = 34

21 Jan 1996 - 20 Jan 1997
+Republican = 88
+Democrat = 37

While skimming through some articles, I realized that searching for the number of times 'homeless' is used is not a good indication of liberal bias. Many of the stories were about homeless in Africa, Asia, Albania; homeless due to tornadoes, fire, floods, and so on. A better indication of 'political advocacy' would, of course, be the number of stories on network news.

I found this interesting little tidbit while looking at the Post's archives.

Stephen Barr Washington Post Staff Writers
June 5, 1998; Page A29
Section: A SECTION
Word Count: 878
Scrambling to find money to fix its computers' Year 2000 glitch, the Department of Health and Human Services has unearthed an unlikely source of funds: grants to help homeless teenagers. HHS Secretary Donna E. Shalala notified members of Congress this week that she was transferring $7 million from a program designed to help young people living on the streets, shifting it instead to reprogram agency computers. That news triggered immediate protests not only from advocates...


[For only $80, you can retrieve the full story.]

-Angela





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Author: doezidotes Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 100384 of 1966611
Subject: Re: Crime rate to rise under Bush Date: 12/19/2001 5:30 PM
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You also have to normalize for page, location on page, whether the story makes national news.<i/>

Exactly. This type search leaves much to be desired. I tried searching for 'homeless' in headlines only. But then you still have the tornado, flood, fire, other country issue. You would have to read every article to discover that the sainted Dems want to help the homeless while the evil Repubs want to create more homeless...

-Angela

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