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Author: DrTarr Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76421  
Subject: Re: Filling out Monte Carlo Based Calculator Date: 12/31/2007 11:38 PM
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Current Age: 40 - Use 40.

Retirement Age: 70 - Use 70.

Life Expectancy: 95 - Use 95.

Inflation: Average: 3.5% - I will split your numbers. 3.925%

Inflation: Std Dev: It defaults to 0. Keep on 0? - No, I used 25%

Investment tax rate: -Default to 15%

Income Tax rate: Probably stay in low tax bracket - I am going with at your level you may have deductions to get 10%.

Current Taxable Investments: Use $76,000

Tax Deferred Investments: 0 ? no regular IRAs - Use 0.

Tax Free Investments: $42,000 in a ROTH IRA.

Minimum IRA withdrawal age: If you are going to retire at 70 I will use that number - you would have to start taking out near here anyway.

Taxable Annual Savings: $2000 - Make it so - $2000

Tax Deferred Annual Savings: 0

Tax Free Annual Savings: 0

Investing Style: You are conservative right now IMHO. I would go with moderate, but with only 105 cash/bonds I will use the above average.

For the additional inputs- lets go with the default. What they are asking here is for your opinion on how your investments will do and how you think your tax rate / savings rate etc. will vary with time. There are way to many variables for you to type in so lets stay simple.

Rate: 8% or should we use something else? This is determined by the Above average risk profile on the main page.

Cashflow Type: Social Security This is so you can enter your Social security - we have this in the retirement income on the front page so no additional use here.

Start Year: ? This would be the year you start drawing social security which we had at 70.
End Year: ? This would be the last year you draw social security - in you case we are going with 95
Annual Amount: I didn't know what to enter, since it goes up every year. I am hoping we enter all in todays dollars
Taxable Percent: ? This would be 10%, of course a guess depends on Congress.

The only other Cashflow Type which might apply to me is "Other Expenses". Can I leave out expenses for this study? Yes

Annual Retirement Income: I didn't know what to enter here. I think this would be for a pension

Retirement Income Start Age: I didn't know what to enter here. Again when the pendion starts

Annual Retirement Spending: I didn't know what to enter here. I currently live with family so I only spend $15K. That will change later. I guess we should use the smallest amount one can live on in the US. 30K in today's dollars? Will use 30K


Spending Policy: I didn't know what to enter here. I would use stable - fixed income etc.

When I fill in some numbers and then hit Run Simulation and then hit, Detailed Summary, because I have a Mac I do not see any heading in the nine white boxes on top. Can someone tell me from left to right, what the headings are?

1. Year -
2. Avg Return(std Dev) -
3. Inflation (std Dev) -
4. Median Portfolio Balance -
5. New Investments -
6. Planned Expenses -
7. After Tax Income -
8. Median Total Withdrawl -
9. % Expenses Funded.


With these numbers the probability of success is ~45% and it typically lloks like the portfolio is gone at or near age 89. If you drop the retirement spending to 25,000 the probability of success is over 53%. Meaning more likely than not. - While the expected outcome is success, it is still retirement so.. think about it. Another note is if you change the spending to FLEXIBLE the probability goes up and if you can save 3000 each year you can get to >75% and a portfolio that looks stable...If you can get 3000 tax deferred or tax free - you are over 80%.

This is of course if I got what the calculator is about. And I make no statement about its accuracy.

d(HTH)/dT
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