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Author: just1trader Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 2744  
Subject: Re: The Gold Juniors Date: 5/14/2013 4:55 PM
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currently GLDX is stagnant. I would start looking for a pickup at around 3.68


I wouldn't peg a pickup in the price of GLDX to the price of GLDX itself, but to a change in macro-economic conditions, which I don't even want to attempt to game. Reading that article by Rick Rule convinced me I've got no business trying to trade the gold juniors. I made good money the first time I put on a position, and I'd call today's fiasco a 'scratch' created more by the market gods bailing me out of a very bad entry than anything else. I did a dumb thing and was lucky enough to get away with it, this time. Next time, I can't count on being so lucky.

So, I'm backing away from the idea that I should be putting on fundamentally-motivated trades. If I'm getting in and out in 43 seconds or in 60 seconds, fundamentals don't matter, and 2 minutes is about as long as I like to hold a position when I'm truly trading, as opposed to doing what most 'investors' would call 'active trading' but which is merely very disciplined, short-term investing. In other words, if you're working off of end-of-day charts to make your entry and exit decisions, you aren't 'trading'. You're just investing, because you're using exactly the same techniques as so-called 'investors' would, and if a time-scale were removed from the chart, you wouldn't know which group was using it.

Market-time is fractal. The same thrust and counter-thrust patterns are repeated across all time-frames *except* --as Mandelbrot argues -- at the extreme end of time-scales. Then, different things do happen, and different dynamics prevail. But the super-fast, nano-second stuff doesn't interest me, nor the super-slow, invest-by-the-calendar stuff, either. I want trade with a counter-party whose emotions I can see right then and there in the tape. Working off of 1-minute bars is just about right. Not too fast; not too slow. Do a couple a good trades, and you're done for the day.

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