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Author: slmcfarlane Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 842  
Subject: cut my losses? Date: 9/28/2004 1:07 AM
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Trying to decide whether or not to cut my losses on XLNX.
Any comments or thoughts out there?
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Author: Rile72 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 828 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 9/28/2004 7:32 AM
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Just as I never buy near the 52 week high, I try to never sell near the 52 week low, unless there is some overriding reason (news) which makes the sell a logical move. This is mostly a overall down market, and the techs are taking the biggest hit.
I'm holding.

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 829 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 9/28/2004 8:35 AM
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FWIW I agree with rile172 - and when it's a market sector depression cycle, not in a TA sense but in the general consumer spending/semi-industry sense, I often consider buying....but then I never would have ridden through a large downward delta without diversifying into the cash to do so. You have to watch the changes in semi markets - they cycle with steps downward all too frequently. I solidified this observation a long time ago not only as a passive investor but as a EE working with semi equipment suppliers.

I figure you (we) do our fundamental research & pick good companies & interesting markets. I make buy/ sell rules and thresholds. Stick to them or make them dynamic but at least let them trigger the process of portfolio analysis. You can always revisit the thresholds or alarm rules later but at least set them to some level of comfort to take profits occasionally and stop gap losses. That's how I've made money off ADI (especially) and other semis for 18 years. ANY time I've ignored my own advice (above) I've really regretted it.
Just sharing FWLIW.
Gd luck,
B

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Author: cordob Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 830 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 9/29/2004 8:18 PM
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I am staying in.
The market may not relaise it yet, but FPGA is really the trend of the future, fast time to market, low development cost.

Xilinx and Altera are the leaders in the field. Stay with them. I am only long XLNX now, but will probably add ALTR.

Cheers
Cor


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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 831 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 9/30/2004 2:43 PM
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"The market may not relaise it yet, but FPGA is really the trend of the future, fast time to market, low development cost."

As an embedded developer I can testify it's the trend of today not just tomorrow ;-)

...but it's still expensive (FPGA's w/soft cores) for medium to high volume consideration so DSPs and uC's will always have a following as long as they offer the right bang for buck and integrate cheaply the peripherals dejour (i.e. ethernet controller cores lately). Also the development paradigms are comfortable for embedded developers - the FPGA mag's & tool vendors are working on it but it's an expensive learning curve for many especially smaller companies. Again as a developer it's very nice to have all these options for various application demands & budgets.

I agree Xilinx & Altera are worth watching & perhaps buying sometime once they start to recover. I only buy on positive sector movement or improvements FWIW - why loan money to a down headed market? Predictions are pretty dire for demand over the next year. Talk to a semi salesman about a real domestic (US) lead or opportunity and he/she will be very attentive. Tough times continue from my observations.
B


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Author: cordob Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 832 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 9/30/2004 9:51 PM
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As an embedded developer I can testify it's the trend of today not just tomorrow ;-)

Philipo, you're so right

As to keeping your powder dry, taht's fine. I have an initial position in XLNX at a small loss so far, watching for signs of the big pickup. Also watching ALTR.

FYI I don't believe the chip cycle has stopped yet and probably it won't be stopped forever now, things have changed.

Cheers
Cor



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Author: JamesWAllen Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 833 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 10/1/2004 8:33 AM
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Cor,

FYI I don't believe the chip cycle has stopped yet and probably it won't be stopped forever now, things have changed.

I agree, mostly. The chip cycle won't stop until there's a recession. But could you elaborate on what you mean by "things have changed?"

Jim

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 834 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 10/1/2004 10:49 AM
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"I agree, mostly. The chip cycle won't stop until there's a recession."

Or more directly inventory starts to back up or orders slowed. A recession is more of a top level cause/effect (and hard to define or pin down given varying opinions). Still feels like one hell of a recession in my world....is it getting better? Well only becuase, to steal a partial book's title, been down so long it looks like up (barely).
B

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Author: cordob Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 835 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 10/1/2004 7:37 PM
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I agree, mostly. The chip cycle won't stop until there's a recession. But could you elaborate on what you mean by "things have changed?"

Hi Jim,

Actually it is a longish story and I am not ready to put it all on the table here and now, because I am writing a major piece on it for a new newsletter on chip stocks soon.

Some elements: similar to the change from Galbraithian economics some 50 years ago to more controlled economic environments, better forward planning, but also JIT causes less of the tail wagging the dog (thks ^^^^). I also believe that chip number growth will outgrow asp erosion for the next foreseeable future. Hence a growth market, but one has to pick one's sectors.

Cheers
Cor

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Author: JamesWAllen Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 836 of 842
Subject: Re: cut my losses? Date: 10/2/2004 3:56 PM
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Philipo,

Or more directly inventory starts to back up or orders slowed. A recession is more of a top level cause/effect (and hard to define or pin down given varying opinions). Still feels like one hell of a recession in my world....

I am speaking about the chip industry from a high level view. Chip production expanded in the years following the last few recessions in the US. The industry underwent serious contractions during the recessions because of the decline in user demand.

That doesn't mean that there weren't inventory corrections, hard times for individual companies, etc. during those expansions.

Anyway, it's nice to hear from someone actually in the chip industry.

Jim

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