After reading these posts, I was motivated to just take a quick look and see how the 2009-? cyclical bull market is tracking versus the 2003-2007 cyclical bull market.

http://randomroger.blogspot.com/2013/01/a-new-year.html

For 2013 I think there is a high probability of the economic and stock market cycles ending. From the bottom up we certainly could continue to muddle economically and stocks continue to do well but the cycles now are old. Bespoke cites the current bull market as the ninth longest out of what is counts as 26 bull markets since 1927. Of course my base case for the cycles ending in 2013 could be wrong which would be a good thing but it is always worth pointing out that all expansions and bull markets end, it is normal and will happen again.

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2013/01/20130...

To summarize, the ten-year trading range of the S&P 500 Index suggests that a major price top should be arriving sometime in the first half of 2013, maybe within three months. After that the Four-Year Cycle low (price low) projection would be for the last half of 2014, unless the decline is exceptionally accelerated.

So far, the sequence and magnitude of returns (price change, no dividends) of the 2009 cyclical bull market bear an uncanny resemblance to the 2003-2007 cyclical bull for the S&P 500.

2003 - 29% 2009 - 26%
2004 - 11% 2010 - 15%
2005 - 5% 2011 - 0%
2006 - 16% 2012 - 13%
Oct 2007 - Market peak 2013 - Market peak?

To be clear, this isn't some ironclad forecast...simply an interesting comparison that might be a roadmap for the next 12 months in terms of having one eye on the exit door. I think there would be a certain symmetry to once again topping out in the 1500-1550 region and putting in a decade+ triple top.

Assuming a bear market and perhaps bear market bottom in 2014, this would dovetail nicely with previous secular market bottoms. The 1921 secular market bottom was 15 years after the 1906 peak. The 1942 bottom was 13 years after the 1929 peak. One could argue whether 1966 or 1968 was the secular peak, but the 1982 bottom was 14-16 years after that. So a bottom in 2014 would be 14 years after the 2000 secular peak. I think there is a very good probability that the next cyclical bear market low will in fact turn out to the be the secular bear market low that serves as the launching pad for the next 300-500% up move in the stock market. This might also nicely coincide with past secular market lows where the majority of the retail public is apathetic towards stocks. I think one more 30-40% drop might be the final nail in the coffin for public sentiment towards stock ownership.