Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (27) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: FoolBernie Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 23022  
Subject: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/8/1999 4:49 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Hi fellow CANSLIMmers,

I'm just about finished with my 7-day trial with Daily Graphs online. (Offered by the same parent company that produces IBD through www.dailygraphs.com)

First impressions: It's definitely not as glitzy or as customizable as other technical analysis packages out there (TC2000, etc) But what it lacks for in features, it MORE than makes up for in content. Kiss goodbye those beloved sessions squinting at bold EPS and RS numbers in IBD. You want the top 100 EPS NYSE stocks? Click - BANG. Nasdaq/Amex? Zing. Same for RS, A/D, and many other criteria. So although you can't ask Daily Graphs online for custom info, the time it saves you in narrowing the key CANSLIM criteria is incredible.

I was able to export these reports to Excel 97 format and filter them myself as a spreadsheet. This was cool, because I could combine the very best of them into a "super list" and import it back into Daily Graphs online. Some of the movements that have literally jumped off the screen at me from this process were:

EUSA 11/29 breakout on heavy volume
PSUN 12/6 breakout from cup w/handle on 3X volume
SCOC 11/29 breakout on 5X volume

I'm now tracking a handful of stocks with great fundamentals and good-looking sideways bases in their charts on drying up volume. I could have found some of them using only IBD and a free internet chart site, but it would have taken a great deal more time. There is a lot more functionality available than I have covered here, but these were the features most important to me.

Is DG Online worth $60 per month? That's a question I'll have to answer for myself in a couple of days when my trial period expires. It's definitely overkill for a newbie to CANSLIM. But if have been working the system for a while and already scan the listings in IBD, you probably owe it to yourself to try the 7 day trial. (it's not free, but if you decide to sign up they will apply the $20 trial fee to your subscription) Hope you enjoyed my comments.

Disclaimer: I am not affiliated in any way with Daily Graphs online, IBD, or William J ONiel.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: jeffandkim Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3924 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/8/1999 7:46 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Bernie,

Thanks for the comments. I have considered it but since I am still on the steep side of the learning curve, I have opted to go a cheaper route for now.

Jeff

Print the post Back To Top
Author: OzHog Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3934 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/8/1999 10:31 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I was interested in your comments as I am also going to try Daily Graphs. I actually ordered the trial of the paper copy which should arrive next week. I tried it 3 years ago but had no idea what I was looking for and hadn't really settled on an investment strategy (I still thought you could mix CANSLIM and Buy and hold--what a mistake).

You seem to be familiar with TC2000 and other charting software. What kind of a job did DGO do in charting? Could you read price and volume easily and adjust for different time periods (daily, 2,3,4 weekly and monthly bars)? Can you plot trendlines using DGO?

I am comfortable with the information I am using now TC2000, IBD and TradeHard) but agree that if information on group leaders, sales and earnings are easier to find it may pay for itself in a short time.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: FoolBernie Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3957 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/10/1999 2:47 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
OzHog said:
------
You seem to be familiar with TC2000 and other charting software. What kind of a job did DGO do in charting? Could you read price and volume easily and adjust for different time periods (daily, 2,3,4 weekly and monthly bars)? Can you plot trendlines using DGO?
------

As far as I can tell, you get the graph they send you (1 year, daily) and that's it. From that standpoint, it's merely a static copy of what the printed version would look like, although it the current day's price and volume is updated every 20 minutes during trading hours. I should mention, though, that the graphics are very readable (and patterns are easy to spot).

The trendline support consists of a line pen, but again this is very primitive. If you mess up, you can't erase and redraw, you have to refresh the chart and start over. You can't save a snapshot of a chart, but you can of course print one at any time.

I could envision some pretty arcane workarounds like screen snapshotting the graphs or perhaps exporting stock lists you make from DGO and reading them into other, more flexible charting apps. But this underlines my feeling that the major benefit here is not the charting at all, but rather the convenient CANSLIM data available via the nightly reports.

HTH,

-FoolBernie



Print the post Back To Top
Author: sweetpeaches Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4002 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/21/1999 8:52 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I have recently cancelled my subscriptions to IBD and Daily Graphs (both online and hard copy) after 4 years. Too much information on a daily basis. I am used to picking up the paper to read the EPS and RS etc. so conveniently placed in IBD but the cost is too much and I thought I'd see what life is like without daily infusion. I can always purchase Friday's IBD for the Week in Review.

By cost I do not mean money. The money is worth it. If you are going to watch the market every day and jump in and out the $1,000 a year is well worth it. I love these tools. But I found myself so engrossed in the excitement of the market it was all I could talk about. After reading the FOOLS books I took a major step back and re-organized my thinking about the market and me.

How many trades do I need to make a week?
How many stocks do I want to hold?
How many do I want to watch?
Do I really want the stock market to control my life?

I have seen William O'Neil live several times and I would not be investing if it weren't for him. He says to hold no more than 6 to 8 stocks. Even if you have millions. Well, right now, I have 5 really great stocks (1 is up over 225% and the rest over 80%) and am not in the market for many more. So the daily information is overload....way overload.

No one asked but for BUY and SELL money I use Roth IRA funds. For BUY and HOLD I use regular money.
I can see myself re-subscribing in the future. For now, I need a rest.

So how do I rest? I began subscribing to TC2000 in June and really like the interactive nature of the software. I attended a free workshop where the audience gave CANSLIM criteria for a Watchlist on TC2000 and VOILA the stocks fitting the bill appeared. Hey, that's hot. You can go to www.worden.com and see if they are coming to an event in your neck-of-the-woods.

Happy Holidays...s.p.


Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: Robertbw One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4005 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/22/1999 8:23 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Thank you for your feedback. I too am feeling that excitement about investing and the information overload, sensing that if I invest the O'Neil way it may be successful, but it may become my whole life. I don't want that to happen. I certainly feel it is a great education, however.

I take it you have been successful using his methods? Have you been able to identify "pivot points" and make it work for you? I think it would be really exciting to identify a few stocks that really took off.

Would you mind sharing what stocks you are holding? And are you just holding them or are you switching in and out of them as they rise and consolidate, as the O'Neil method would have you do?

Thank you again

R

Print the post Back To Top
Author: sweetpeaches Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4006 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/22/1999 12:04 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Hi Robertbw,

I own HDI, SYMC, SUNW, ZOMAX and XLNX. I buy when a new high with a base has formed. I do not use a cup and handle for it is too hard for me to recognize before the fact. All the after the facts are easy but as I go back over the Daily Graphs I am able to identify only 1 out of 3. Not good enough for me to place money on the line.

I am seriously considering buying NOK. It is $10 off it's high of $179. Has had a steep climb so there is some profit taking going on. It's been down a few dollars the last 2 days. If it hits $167 I'll buy. It has great numbers in the CANSLIM method, no debt, and will probably split in April. You can read all this on the message board. I thought of purchasing at $110 but missed out. I don't buy on the way up, but it is now basing? to use the term loosely and I think this is going to really go places based on the times, the fundamentals of the company and on qualifying as a CANSLIM. Especially as it is a leader in its industry.

And are you just holding them or are you switching in and out of them as they rise and consolidate, as the O'Neil method would have you do?

I do both. In my Roth Ira I buy and sell, and for these stocks I use a somewhat different method. I look for splits and buy when announced (if the company is a CANSLIM company) and sell when the price goes up. Or I may buy when I see a nice base, and sell when the price goes up. It depends on what money is available.

Of the stocks above HDI and XLNX are in my Roth. I probably will not sell HDI (emotional attachment). I will sell XLNX when it splits 12/29/99 and look for another short term buy.

The others, including more HDI, I buy and hold for a year and a day. I then take out an amount to pay down debt (mortgage and car is all) and decide whether or not I want to put the money into a better company. These stocks are staggered time wise so the year and a day falls about quarterly. In this way I am making investment decisions about every 3 months. I am paying off debt and it gives me time to evaluate companies that may have caught my eye, like NOKIA.

I really liked RHAT at $123 and again did not buy, it went way up and I do not chase. I am not considering a serious investment at this time because while I love Linux and the concept and all that, the fundamentals are not there for the cost right now. It is going to split on January 7? (close enough). I will wait and see what it does after that split and maybe buy a few shares for play...but not for serious money.

Hope this answers your questions.

Sweet



Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: Robertbw One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4011 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/22/1999 11:55 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Thank you for your very helpful note.

I too have been looking at Nokia. In fact bought some at 149 but freaked out when it started bouncing around in the 170's to the 150's and sold at 159. But I bought without a plan, and I don't plan to do that again. Do you think it has "based" long enough now? Or should one wait for a few weeks...it seems that is what the pattern is in the O'Neil book. Did you buy some today when it went below 167?

Have you been reading Mycroft's posts about Nokia? He seems very informed and is fun to read.

Does the Daily Graphs allow you to screen for stocks that are accumulating with an "A" rating?

May I pick your brain a little more? O'Neil says that half of being successful at stocks is to time the general market, and devotes a whole chapter to that. Do you think this is possible? Do you spend a lot of time following the indexes and the indicators he suggests? Would you sell all your stuff if it looked like a crash was imminent?

Thank you so much again.
R



Print the post Back To Top
Author: sweetpeaches Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4012 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/23/1999 12:54 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Hi Robertbw,

Did you buy sometoday when it went below 167?

Yes. I had decided to buy if it hit $165. It hit, I bought. Got in at $166.50. Mycroft has been suggesting Drip purchase only but I bought a chunk. Apparently there was a deal today with Qualcom and a Japanese company (I can't remember the name right now) and Mycroft thinks there will be a price upsurge tomorrow. There were enough sideways days for me to get in. Profit taking had to take place and the last few years NOK has split in April so even though a bit rich I had set my price and I bought.

Does the Daily Graphs allow you to screen for stocks that are accumulating with an "A" rating?

Yes...at least the Hard Copy puts an * by A ratings. I am not sure about On Line version. I did not use that much as I would pick the stocks I was interested in and pull the chart. All the info is on the chart so no need to screen.

O'Neil says that half of being successful at stocks is to time the general market, and devotes a whole chapter to that. Do you think this is possible?

O'Neil wrote "How to Make Money in Stocks" in 1988. Think about it. The market he was writing about no longer exists. Take the cup and handle formation. A handle almost never forms now. With internet buying the pattern moves too fast. As to watching the Dow etc. We have seen what looks like corrections last less than a month. What has really changed, in my opinion, is a more informed investor, thanks in large part to William O'Neil. I remember in October, 1996 when the Dow lost 700 points at opening due to the Asian Crisis. The Wise bailed, the small investor bought. That marks, for me, the end of investing as O'Neil writes about. I am not saying throw it all away...it's just that we see huge swings hour to hour...swings that in 1988 sometimes took days to develop. It's a different world.

This said: Would you sell all your stuff if it looked like a crash was imminent?

If I knew a crash was imminent I would go to cash...probably. But the traditional indicators are screaming crash and it is not happening. I, for one, do not see how it could happen, without a major worldwide calamity, because there is money on the planet and if it doesn't go into stock markets where is it going to go?

Right now I have a sizeable amount in cash. I was checking out the Sonera Corp message board today and even though it looks like a winner (Mycroft approved) I am waiting til after 1/1/00 because, silly as it sounds, the nuclear weapons across the Atlantic may be affected by Y2K. I want the companies I invest in to remain in business, not be blown apart. As remote a possibility as that seems, I am willing to wait a few more days. One investment in Europe, NOK, is enough for me.

That, to me, is one of the beauties of IBD. I have learned to allow myself to act on these feelings and thoughts, regardless of how silly they sound because...if it is a good company, a winner, it will be there after the concern passes. If a major crash hit us tomorrow, the stocks I hold should, by all criteria, remain after the fallout. That is what it is all about.

One last point. I have, as part of my investment plan, enought cash to pay all my bills for 3 years. I replenish this amount, and pay down debt, quarterly. So if the market did crash, it has never lasted 3 years. I should be ok and if I'm not, well, the world will have really, really changed.

I'll be away for the holiday so may not post again for a few days, unless I find a computer....Have a Happy Holiday.

Sweet.







Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: timsanfool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4013 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/23/1999 11:10 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
>O'Neil wrote "How to Make Money in Stocks" in 1988. Think about it. The market he was writing about no longer exists.
Take the cup and handle formation. A handle almost never forms now. With internet buying the pattern moves too fast. As to
watching the Dow etc. We have seen what looks like corrections last less than a month. What has really changed, in my
opinion, is a more informed investor, thanks in large part to William O'Neil. I remember in October, 1996 when the Dow lost
700 points at opening due to the Asian Crisis. The Wise bailed, the small investor bought. That marks, for me, the end of
investing as O'Neil writes about. I am not saying throw it all away...it's just that we see huge swings hour to hour...swings that
in 1988 sometimes took days to develop. It's a different world.<

If you have the Second Edition of O'Neil's book the shows stock charts of winning stocks from 1992. It was published in 1995. I don't think anything in the book changed since then or in the market. Cup w/handles form all the time and will continue to form. You just need to educate yourself on what to look for and how to spot them. If you aren't willing to do this, it seems you shouldn't try to use CANSLIM to invest. Remember the market indexes are at a higher value now than in 1988 and the intra day volatility percentage wise is not that much different. It is like looking at a chart of a stock and seeing the move from 300 to 400 as a larger advance that its move from 30 to 40.

Tim

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: sweetpeaches Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4014 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/23/1999 11:26 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Hi Timsanfool,

You just need to educate yourself on what to look for and how to spot them. If you aren't willing to do this, it seems
you shouldn't try to use CANSLIM to invest.


I've been using the CANSLIM method for several years and have noticed the handle lasts for a much shorter, sometimes only a day or two, period of time than even 5 years ago. I am not saying it is not there, I am saying it is less dependable than in the past. I have all the editions of O'Neils books plus most of what IBD offers. I love the paper, the books, all of it. This said...times are changing and the investment world is changing right along with it...as are some of the charting patterns. The paper is keeping up with discussions of these changes. The books are locked in time. Even 1995 is 4 years...a lifetime in the investment world.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: dbphoenix Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4015 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/23/1999 1:57 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<the handle lasts for a much shorter, sometimes only a day or two>>

A "handle" which lasts for only a day or two is hardly a handle. It wouldn't even show up on a weekly chart.

To say that these patterns no longer exist would be misleading. You'd be more accurate in saying that you choose not to follow them.

Bubbles play havoc with patterns, but that doesn't mean they no longer apply. The disciplined investor who sticks to these patterns (such as HLIT yesterday) will do well year after year. The bubble player can lose it all in minutes.

--Db

Print the post Back To Top
Author: timsanfool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4017 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 12/23/1999 3:52 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Thanks DB. That is essentially what I was trying to say. Program trading was supposed to change the way the market worked. It made minor fluctuations, but the market is still the same. Day trading was supposed to do the same thing. It didn't.

Tim

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Robertbw One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4057 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/5/2000 9:55 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Hi Sweetpeaches...

I am wondering how you are approaching your stocks now that the market has had such a shift (albeit just a day).

I am especially interested in your plans for Nokia... will you sell, in CANSLIM fashion, if it dips below 7% of your buy at 167? Are you invested in Nokia with intentions of holding long term, as Mycroft would do, or are you approaching it the O'Neil way?

And how about ZOMX? What are your thoughts and approach?

I find that I am somewhere between a Long Term Buy and Hold approach and CANSLIM... and I am confused about what to do when the M of CANSLIM seems to be changing.

It is so inexpensive to sell, with regards to commissions, and my account is tax-deferred, so that it would not be hard to wait on the sidelines for a while, but that is not what I set out to do with my "Rule Maker" type of stocks. I don't have any problem with selling CANSLIM stocks (that is stocks I bought specifically with the CANSLIM method in mind at the time of buying them), if they dip below 7%, but I look at the long term stocks and think "should I not get out while the getting is good and start approaching them the CANSLIM way?"

I was already neurotic enough!

Any thoughts will be welcome.

Thanks

Rob


Print the post Back To Top
Author: dbphoenix Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4058 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/5/2000 10:14 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<I am confused about what to do when the M of CANSLIM seems to be changing>>

M is fine, but a lot of rookie investors, particularly those who trade with joysticks, are learning that stocks and markets don't go up forever without reaction. If there are a great many of them, there may be a bit further downside, but there will also be institutional support of the stronger names at support.

If you bought your stocks at canslim buypoints, the profit-taking going on is trivial. If you bought them at over-extended levels, you probably should already have been stopped out.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: donhix Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4059 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/5/2000 4:24 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0

FoolBernie,

I too just finished my seven day trial of "Daily Graphs on Line."

I signed up for the month to month plan. I am a former "Daily Graphs" print subscriber. Back in 92/93.

I really like the new on line program. I have Value Line on line and I like that too.


I could never make any money to speak of using the CANSLIM style of investing. I sure it was my fault, I have alway been an admirer of William O'Neil and David Ryan.

The new "Daily Graphs" has many or the things I consider important, like percentage of insider ownership, debt, growth rate, earning estimates and all the other features at a glance.

It is very fast. On CNBC, they just mention a company and I can pop it up on screen in a flash and instant see if if measures up to my standards.

I like to buy companies below their two hundred day average and I can see that very quickly too.

When I stopped selling these great companies and began to hold them, my portfolio has really come alive.

As far as I am concerned, I don't ever expect to sell another company as long as I live, unless I need some money to buy another company or for personal reasons.

My style of investing now is, buy a little piece of the best companies you can find and hold, no more selling.

Buy and hold.

Cordially,

Don Hicks



Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: pumpatch Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4061 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 2:04 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
db You suggest that the M in canslim is just fine and we are in a correction. Ive been two days second guessing myself and my analysis of the general market. Like everyone else Ive become concerned of over extended prices. Ive looked back for four days of distribution but cannot find anything that stands out as a sell signal. Either there are some subtle things I am missing, or monday was a Major first distribution day, or this is just a correction in the long term trend, or the normal signals of a market top just did not show up. Luckily I am way ahead on my original investments so I have no principal loss except for a handful of Lucent, but the paper loss is almost as painful. If this is a major correction were there any signs that might give you a tip? The main signals Ive seen are just the discussion of the market situation on boards and in the paper. I suppose that ought to be enough but if you listen to them all youd end up a day trader. I,m gonna sit this out one more day and hope some support comes along. thank you LG

Print the post Back To Top
Author: dbphoenix Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4062 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 9:12 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<If this is a major correction were there any signs that might give you a tip?>>

If you mean were there any signs that a correction was imminent, of course. But without getting into a debate as to the value of various measures of internal strength, one must at bottom maintain a connectedness with reality. Markets and stocks cannot go up without pause, not because of any natural law or regression to a mean, but because the population of infinitely stupid people is limited. The only question that remained to be answered was when, and though I couldn't have said that it would be the first week of January, I wasn't surprised when it hit.

But any suggestion that we're entering a bear market is just idiotic. The advantage of going through these episodes personally, in real time, particularly if one keeps a journal, is that one is able to put everything in context, including the garment rending on TV, the headlines, the watercooler trepidation. If you went through October a year ago and this past October, this pullback should be a big yawn. As soon as CNBC started talking about historic point losses, I turned the sound off and started playing Roller Coaster Tycoon (may wind up playing it again today).

So far, the action is in the hands of traders. There is no other reasonable explanation for the relationship of the major averages to their moving averages and trendlines. If you understand this, and if you understand support and resistance and the relationship of price to volume, you'll know whether to take advantage of opportunities like this to buy more, or to heed whatever warnings may be manifesting themselves and raise cash.

Incidentally, forget about tops and distribution days and sell signals. Thinking about these things, much less worrying about them will do you no good whatsoever. You will only be prevented from thinking clearly. Place your stops properly and relinquish control of that end of the transaction (let it go, Luke). If they're hit, they're hit. If they're not, they're not. If they're hit and you can't find anything else to buy, read a book. If you can find other things to buy but their breakouts fail, read a book. If the averages begin confirmed downtrends, read a book and wait for the bottom.

It's not all that difficult if you listen to logic rather than your stomach. If you're that tied up, sell enough to quiet your intestines, then go read a book. Or buy and play a simulation game of some sort such as one of the Sim series (try Sim Egypt) or the game I mentioned earlier. I can't think of better training for the kind of attitude one needs for profitable investing.

--Db

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: Robertbw One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4063 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 9:36 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Dear dbphoenix

You have indicated that"M" is fine. How do you personally track "M"? I have read O'Neil's chapter but I think I am still in the range of "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing".

Also, I have been looking at your web site on charts. I appreciate your work.
R

Print the post Back To Top
Author: dbphoenix Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4064 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 9:59 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<How do you personally track "M"?>>

Aside from moving averages, I look only at raw data. I don't follow any "indicators" (I'm not interested in indications; I'm interested in what's going on). The data I follow is new highs and new lows, advancers and decliners, and volume of advancers and decliners and how all that relates to the "price". And before anyone gets excited about the advance/decline business, note I made no mention of lines of any sort.

O'N is wrong when he disparages measures of market internals. The singlemost important thing the investor can follow the the volume of advancers vs the volume of decliners, either in 1d or 10d EMA form. Or as a histogram without any MAs at all. They call bottoms and they warn of overextension.

Another simple measure, if you use Yahoo, is to select the five best-performing stocks in the Dow, the Naz, the NYSE and the S&P, then create portfolios of each of these groups and track their progress. If you want a chart of this, track its value daily in Excel.

It's also not a bad idea to become acquainted with the specialty indexes that are related to your investments. There are three or four internet indexes, a retail index, semiconductor index, computer index, high-tech index, etc. Their confirmation or non-confirmation is often worth noting.

But the more macro you get, the more behind you'll be. Focus on the volume and the leaders.

--Db

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: timsanfool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4069 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 10:00 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I have to agree with DB on the comments about reading books and such. Jesse Livermore mentions in his book to periodically to forget about the markets and take a vacation. Especially if it is worrying you, keeping you up at night or etc.

If I had to say why the market is pulling back this week (and in large chunks), it would be due to the large gains investors had last year. In other words, sell your winners the first week of January and don't have to pay the taxes on capital gains until April 2001.

Tim

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Robertbw One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4070 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 10:23 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Thank you Db.

Please elaborate:
How do you use the moving averages, and which ones?
What about the new highs and lows, advancers and decliners, their volume.... what are you looking for, and over what period of time? A couple of days ago, when the Nasdaq reversed and the big indexes went down, what were your thoughts as you looked at the things you mentioned? Your earlier post indicated that you did not see a problem with "M". Not having much perspective over time (just "book learning"), it looked pretty bad to me. Of course the long term moving averages were not affected much, but new highs were outnumbered. What did the volume of advancers versus volume of decliners tell you that day, and what is it telling you now? I guess its a matter of looking at several days or weeks of poor numbers... or when do you decide "M" is not favorable?

Another big set of questions: What do you do when "M" starts to look bad? Do you withdraw completely from the market and wait for a turnaround, or are there stocks you let weather the market? Do you get partway out? ...please let me know something about your thought processes in all this.

CANSLIM takes quite a lot discipline, I can see. I am poor at discipline unless I know what I am doing, and deciphering O'Neil is not easy.

And thank you again.
R

Print the post Back To Top
Author: gandolf00 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4071 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/6/2000 11:19 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<The singlemost important thing the investor can follow the the volume of advancers vs the volume of decliners, either in 1d or 10d EMA form. Or as a histogram without any MAs at all. They call bottoms and they warn of overextension.>>

Hi Db,

This is my second "correction" since I started following CANSLIM principals late last summer. I too was looking for hints of distribution as you helped me define it several posts back, "distribution occurs when an index or a stock rises intraday and then sells off sharply to close lower on high volume, or when there is little or no upward price movement, both intarday and eod, on high volume. I did not see such distribution in the major indices. On Mon the Naz did gap up at the open and then "distributed" but buying kicked in by the afternoon and it closed up. Therefore no distribution.

I too have been following the market internals as you recommended in the summer. I plot these daily in excel and then chart a 10DMA of new highs/lows, advancers/decliners, advancers minus decliners, up volume/down volume, up volume minus down volume for the NYSE and Naz. Your comment about up volume/down volume being the most thing to follow is interesting. Just what do you look for with this? What I see is that the DV has been moving up and the UV has been moving down since the beginning of this wek (ie. the UV/DV daily difference has been falling dramatically). Is this what you look for?
You said " They call bottoms and they warn of overextension." Its clear the Naz has been overextended for some time but what if anything tells you a top (intermediate?) has been reached. Also how does the UV/DV call bottoms, ie. what exactly do you look for?

Thanks again for your help,

Gandolf







Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: dupaski One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4074 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/7/2000 10:22 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<Just what do you look for with this?>>


There are many things to look for however to distill this down to its simplest form, look for what doesn't make sense. For example if an index is making new high after new high yet the advancers and advancing volume is falling off its only a matter of time before the index will follow suit. These divergences tell you what is happening in real time, and give you a glimpse at what the real strength and weaknesses of a given "M" is. The best part is that this data is raw therefore is not subject to any opinions and emotional reactions (except your own). Its just what actually is happening.


Print the post Back To Top
Author: jensun28 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4075 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/7/2000 10:51 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
You asked for Db, but let me try to answer some of your questions.

<<Your comment about up volume/down volume being the most thing to follow is interesting. Just what do you look for with this?>>
UV/DV shows the strength of the buying and selling, provide more of a visual image than just plot UV and DV. I usually see if there is any divergence w/ price action. For market internets, we need to look at what is not expected.

For example, on the last leg up, both NAZ and NYSE AV was coming down while price was going up, that is a divergence w/ price action.

<<You said " They call bottoms and they warn of overextension." Its clear the Naz has been overextended for some time but what if anything tells you a top (intermediate?) has been reached. >>
My early warning signal is based on O'Neil, 3 distribution days within a 2-3 weeks time period. And after the initial market selloff, watch the strength of the rebounce.

<<Also how does the UV/DV call bottoms, ie. what exactly do you look for>>
Again, see what is unexpected, has selling reached the high extreme and start to decrease, has buying started? How is the PV pattern? What is the trend of the current market?

And if the market is not favorable, stay out.

Jen

Print the post Back To Top
Author: tradecraft Two stars, 250 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4112 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 1/15/2000 4:55 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
<<Not having much perspective over time (just "book learning"), it looked pretty bad to me.>>
<<CANSLIM takes quite a lot discipline, I can see. I am poor at discipline unless I know what I am doing, and deciphering O'Neil is not easy.>>

If you haven't already taken a stroll over to DB's site, I'd recommend that as a good first step. He's done excellent work with it.

With regard to some basics in interpreting market trends, I will shamelessly plug the charting exercises and posts at the Tradecraft Guild board in the Speaker's Corner section. I started it as a place to discuss the general design and testing of trading systems and techniques, including but not limited to CANSLIM. There is a series of posts there on the thought process of going through a chart day by day(posts 5 - 7, intended for charting newbies) as well as a series of posts outlining a basic technique for more objectively identifying up trends, down trends and CANSLIM price patterns(posts 8,9,11,18 & 19). Go through the posts in threaded mode. You may find them helpful.

--Tradecraft

Print the post Back To Top
Author: ejz Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 4719 of 23022
Subject: Re: Daily Graphs online: my impressions Date: 3/31/2000 1:00 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
What is PV pattern that you mention. Is this the PV Trend, and how do you use it?

Thnaks.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (27) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement