db, a thought reply. Thank you.If not predictive ability in an overwhelming sense, at least a statistically measurable edge might be derived from personality theory? That so many investors/traders fail isn't unusual. The numbers are about what they are for small business start ups, and investing/trading are properly understood as businesses. But the intriguing question for me is why are the survivors and winners so persistently survivors and winners and share certain psychological characteristics despite the diversity of their methods? The indexing crowd appeals the the lucky penny metaphor to dismiss their achievements but recent academic work suggests just the opposite: theiir results way beyond chance. And there is abundance anecdotal evidence as well. Are you familiar with Schwager's series on "market wizards"? Attention to (self-)psychology was the common theme of the interviewees. They knew they were trading themselves as much as they were trading markets.Charlie
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