Despite not knowing the answer I clicked four, At/near bottom and things will start gradually improving soon.

When my kids are tired and hungry (in recession) I have a few options besides ignoring them.
1. I can give them sugar (consumer stimulus package) and the results are almost immediate. Full of energy off they go at full speed. Only to crash again soon.
2. I can make them wait for their healthy dinner. That is difficult as their pleas grow ever louder and behaviour deteriorates. However, I know that ensures they will eat properly and will not become addicted to empty sugar. It is painful in the short term, but they become healthier and learn to remain more in control during their next slump.

While that may sound too Forrest Gump like (I'm not sure if it does as I've never seen the movie) I think it is a good analogy.

Too many people are expecting lower prices, me included. However, history has taught me to swap tracks when I side with the masses. So I am now fully invested. Fortunately I believe in using margin, so if the worst does happen and we drop 20% or more then I'll vomit, have an antacid and use margin to load up, backed up by my available non-callable debt facility.

The markets could go down 20% or up 50%. I dunno which, but I know no-one is going to ring a bell to let those in cash or short know that it is time to go long. In fact, R.Dan excluded, I think most people in cash now will be even more petrified if the markets drop 20% and won't invest then. They'll wait until they are sure the recession is past and then I'll be among the people selling them shares.

If I am really wrong then at least I know how to make bread, brew good beer, make bad wine and grow vegetables.

blah blah blah
Dean

Some quick points:
- most economic metrics (i.e. too lazy to look them up) are now deteriorating more slowly.
- In April, the [US] recession would become the longest since the 1930s