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Author: chekat One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 80  
Subject: DIA and SPY Date: 2/24/2001 3:38 AM
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Trader Mike,

I entered in your criteria for finding possible shorts to learn more about what those charts might be like and was surprised that DIA and SPY showed up on the screen. Is there any significance to this? Do these EFT's normally show up when the markets have declined, or is a possible red flag?

Thanks.
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Author: tm2001 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13 of 80
Subject: Re: DIA and SPY Date: 2/24/2001 3:47 PM
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chekat:

I've found the same thing. I usually don't pay much attention to them. If I want to know about the indices, I'll look at the index charts. However, you do raise an interesting question and it's one worth researching.

-tradermike

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Author: chekat One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 17 of 80
Subject: Re: DIA and SPY Date: 2/24/2001 6:05 PM
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I just did some more looking at the chart for S&P 500 Index. The SPY follows the same pattern, except of course, the numbers change.

This is using the default log scaling on weekly and daily charts (depending on the overall timeframe).

There seems to have been a long term trendline in place since late 1994. It was started at that time and tested July 1996, and October 1998. That line was tested again in October 2000, then broken in November 2000. That trendline represented a rise from 450 to 1550 at the height in March 2000. The 1500 area was retested in September 2000.

Since breaking through the long-term trendline, the 150-day EMA was tested from below on 11/6/2000 and 1/31/2001. It's fallen from a high of 1376 on 1/31 to low of 1215 last week (intraday levels).

The current levels were a consolidation area at the beginning of 1999. It seemed to have rested there for about 2 months before resuming it's climb and after a decline back to the long-term trendline at the end of 1998 (which also formed a W on the weekly chart).

So, what does this mean?

Well, on a monthly log chart, the 30 period line has flattened out. Combined with the breaking down through the long-term trendline, I think that means that the trend has changed. I guess what remains to be seen is whether this will be a short-term consolidation (like 1994), a long-term consolidation (like the 70's), or just the start of further breakdown. I guess we have to watch what it does at the 150-day EMA and what it does at the horizontal support in the 1200, 1100, and 975 areas.


All criticism and comments are more than appreciated. Thanks.

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Author: NoLoadFund Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 37 of 80
Subject: Re: DIA and SPY Date: 7/8/2001 3:08 PM
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>>Well, on a monthly log chart, the 30 period line has flattened out.
>>Combined with the breaking down through the long-term trendline, I
>>think that means that the trend has changed. I guess what remains to
>>be seen is whether this will be a short-term consolidation (like
>>1994), a long-term consolidation (like the 70's), or just the start
>>of further breakdown. I guess we have to watch what it does at the
>>150-day EMA and what it does at the horizontal support in the 1200,
>>1100, and 975 areas.

I AM VERY CONCERNED, folks. The market movement is like fractals, you will find patterns within patterns ... and as you scope out, you can more readily identify larger patterns and trends. And what chekat posted is right on the money.

There is a leveling off of the 150 bar moving average for all the major indexes if you set bar=9 days and zoom=1. This is a Weinstein top over a larger chunk of time. It is very pronounced on the SP-500. And it is beginning to take shape on the DJIA. The Naz seems to be the last one to have discovered it.

I've heard some people predict that we are in for a very long bear market. Yes, we are seeing uptrends on a small scale - but they seem to be breaking down. And this larger trend of a Weinstein market top really sticks out. You can even detect a run-up between jan-1999 to dec-2000 ... again, on a larger scale of 9 days/bar.

You might be tempted to say that this top looks bad because its to scale of our most recent top. But use the "[" key to scroll back through time to a previous bear. You will not see the overall market topping (on a macro scale) that you are seeing today.

I predict Monday (7/9) is going to be very black. There might be a gasp or two, but this thing is going to re-test April's low and I believe it will fail the test. I've moved up all my sell-stop orders and expect all of them to fire off in the next week or so.

I could be wrong and I hope that I am. Good luck and best wishes.

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Author: NoLoadFund Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 38 of 80
Subject: Re: DIA and SPY Date: 7/8/2001 3:12 PM
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>>>I predict Monday (7/9) is going to be very black. There might be a
>>>gasp or two, but this thing is going to re-test April's low and I
>>>believe it will fail the test. I've moved up all my sell-stop
>>>orders and expect all of them to fire off in the next week or so.

One more thing. Investors will be stuck between a rock and a hard place if what I have layed out actually takes place. A plummeting stock market combined with rock-bottom interest rates doesn't leave many choices. Gold? Between the matress? Where?

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