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Author: kkubek Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 323  
Subject: Re: Crazy Buy at 19.50 Date: 3/16/2004 5:21 PM
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Do a DCF analysis on LF, giving it a growth rate of 15% (analysts predicting 17.5% right now) and a discount value of 15% (which I think is plenty conservative.)

You'll see LF is worth about $33/share. I used quicken.com's DCF calculator for my calculations.


if it takes a year to get back to $33, you just made a 69% return in a year, good work.

-Vegas


Personally, I think it's crazy to assume that LF will grow 15% for the next 10 years !!

Their guidance for next quarter is revenue of $67-72M. Compared to $77M in the same quarter last year ... that's a drop of at least 7%.

A far cry from 15% growth.

Even assuming they can turn it around and figure out how to regain momentum from Mattel, I think 10% growth is a much more realistic estimate.

At 10% growth (each and every year for 10 years), puts the IV at 17.99

KK

P.S. - I hold no postition (long or short) in LF. I love the products, and would love to see them actually deliver some decent results.
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