http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/03...Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.<snip>Perhaps the most compelling evidence for the irrelevance of debates is that polling in past races hasn’t changed much at all following them. John Sides, a political scientist at GWU and official friend-of-the-blog, summarized the research on this in the Washington Monthly. He notes that a study by UNC’s James Stimson found few noticeable changes in polling after debates, and cites the work of Columbia’s Robert Erikson and Temple’s Christopher Wlezien, who focus on election forecasting using national polling.Erikson and Wlezien find that there’s a “a fairly strong degree of continuity from before to after the debates.” Indeed, if you plot polls from before and after debates against each other, they line up very tightly.chartshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/10...http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/10...http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/10...
For partisans? not at allFor moderates, undecideds, and independants? Absolutely!!!
"For moderates, undecideds, and independants? Absolutely!!! "I doubt that.Ken
"I doubt that.Ken "Hey, whatever sleeping pill helps you sleep at night. Historically this group waits till the very end to make their decisions because they want to wait and learn/see/watch everything that goes down, debate performances are key to this group in helping them better understand the candidates and draw contrasts (good or bad)
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.Depends who is debating and if your Political scientists are Republican or DemocratBears
Depends who is debating and if your Political scientists are Republican or DemocratLOL @ the OP. Richard Nixon, John F. Kennedy, Reagan, Carter, Mondale and algore would all say they do. Dan Quayle will say they don't. Pick your side, I guess.
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.Hmmm, I wonder if you would have posted this if Obama won the debate.That's what I thought.
Do they matter? Yes...the only question is by how much. Maybe it only effects the race by 1 or 2 points. In 1984, 1996 and 2008 they probably meant nothing, in 2000 they probably made the difference.In a close race debates matter. Especially the commentary afterwards, that might have a bigger debate. If debates didn't matter, why bother having them?
Dan Quayle will say they don't. Pick your side, I guess____________VP debates don't matter at all...those are waste of time. Might as well have a First Lady debate, those might be more interesting.Although anytime you give Joe Biden the floor it's bound to be fun.
Although anytime you give Joe Biden the floor it's bound to be fun. Hope Biden does his Labor Organizer act. The one with the scrunched face, pounding fist, emotional attitude ..... usually followed by some classic gaff that will go down in history :)Bears
Also from Washington Post:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/how-much...Look at the graph and make up your own mind. Only one candidate since TV debates started has "won" the debates but lost the election (Kerry 2004).
Footnote: Of course the information I reference was posted 10/2, before the results of this debate so WaPo has reason to backtrack a bit.
Although anytime you give Joe Biden the floor it's bound to be fun. Next week will be a hoot. The moderator will try and push the topic to foreign policy, Biden's area of "expertise".
Hmmm, I wonder if you would have posted this if Obama won the debate.That's what I thought. ------------------------------You don't know me. Yes, I support Obama. Did you see me argue one way or the other with the article? I posted this because I thought it might generate debate. I didn't make up the charts which were based on the evidence. It showed statistics and plotted the results of past debates. Maybe you are attacking me because you don't want to believe that Romney won the debate but may not win the White House. I'm not convinced one way or the other. I think Obama has been winning some of the swing states by only 2% and not even going over 50%, which in my opinion is not good. I leave it up to the professional prognosticators, so we shall see how the polls change and how the Nate Silvers of the world change their predictions. I'm ready for the election to be over. If Romney wins, this country gets what it deserves.
"If Romney wins, this country gets what it deserves. "You say this in a derogatory tone, which is interesting since the alternative is we currently have Obama who has produced nothing good for the economy/jobs in his first term and nothing would change in his second term.So i will flip this around, the country deserves better than Obama, it deserves someone who will actually try to get Americans independant and working again, that person is Romney.Obama is a one nation under government more socialism than capitalism type ideologue, i've never understood the attraction to that system, and never will, but obviously you and many other are, that system is old school, Euro style, been around for centuries, always results in spreading around mediocraty, every shares a moderate/lower middle class lifestyle, again not sure why that is attractive.
Next week will be a hoot. The moderator will try and push the topic to foreign policy, Biden's area of "expertise". ____________________I hope so, Biden gets even better when he thinks he knows what he is talking about.
Lindy - I would contend that if the country gets what it deserves, Romney will win.
the country deserves better than Obama.__________Frankly nobody deserves Obama. Worst person to ever be President.
Lindy - I would contend that if the country gets what it deserves, Romney will win.Then let us pray - that the country not get what it deserves, but rather- what it needs.Obama, '12
"Then let us pray - that the country not get what it deserves, but rather- what it needs.Obama, '12 "You forget to end with j/k
that the country not get what it deserves, but rather- what it needs._________________What it needs isn't running...Our choices are the incompetent a-hole who already has the job or the empty suit looking to get the job.
What it needs isn't running..I actually agree with that.But given the choice between the two.... Obama comes the closest.
"But given the choice between the two.... Obama comes the closest. "You really need to take the blinders off, Economy still sucks, jobs still suck, our growth keeps slowing down, our debt keeps going up, the middle east is on fire, why do you support his man so much?
But given the choice between the two.... Obama comes the closest. ____________Closest to what? Hopefully closest to being unemployed come January.
It matters to the people who take the trouble to watch them.About 40 million people watched it on the regular networks, and after they add in cable news stations, it will probably add up to 52 million which matched or topped the 2008 presidential debate.Biden/Palen pulled a bigger audience, believe it or not.http://politicker.com/2012/10/about-40-million-people-watche...According to preliminary Nielsen numbers, about 39.97 million total viewers watched the first presidential debate on the broadcast networks last night. The debate was also carried by cable news outlets, but those numbers are not yet available. Once the cable audience is included, this should put last night’s debate in contention to match or slightly beat the audience for the first presidential debate of 2008, which was watched by about 52.4 million total viewers including the cable channels. However, it will be hard for this debate to match the highest-rated matchup of the 2008 cycle–the vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, which was watched by 69.9 million people and ranks as the second most viewed debate ever.
"Then let us pray - that the country not get what it deserves, but rather- what it needs.Obama, '12 "LOL LOL LOL Let's if the last 4 years is any indication, your view of what this country needs is as follows:- Trillions and trillions of more debt- Trillion dollar deficits for the next four years- Divisive politics- A president that campaigns 24 hours a day- Crony capitalism- Protectionism- High unemployment..the new norm according to Obama- Not a single budget passed for the next four years- Foreign policy ruled by telling the world the US is at fault and therefore apologizing at every turn- Not allowing our embassy officials to defend themselves with actual weapons- Treating Israel as our enemyYep just what the DR ordered. You have fallen deeper in the progressives hole of delusion!!
You really need to take the blinders off, Economy still sucks, jobs still suck, our growth keeps slowing down, our debt keeps going up, the middle east is on fire, why do you support his man so much? _____________________________But at least he wants to stay the course
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.To be honest, I don't know but I do watch them and listen to the responses to better inform myself about the candidates. Not so much their position, which is spelled out well before any debates happen, but to guage their ability to handle pressure and how well they support their positions. I begin by acknowledging that they're going to spin data to support their positions so I pretty much ignore what they actually say.The one thing I CAN say about debates is that they have been hailed as significant in past elections. Reagan made a HUGE impression in his debates with Carter and most pundits agree that it put him solidly in the lead. JFK jumped ahead of Nixon in their debates and pundits credit Nixons poor performance (and bad makeup) for JFKs win.Most of the time I think it's a toss-up but once in awhile a debate can have a defining moment that propels one candidate to greater heights. I don't think that happened in this debate but it was certainly a poor performance by Obama. It may be that he just doesn't care that much about the debates because he thinks he's got the election sown up. Every politician has a pretty large ego and with polls reporting huge leads for Obama he may just be going through the motions.I think the next debate will be the defining one. Obama's handlers know how poorly he did and will be pushing him to really jump out in the next one. If he does he can gain back all that this may have cost him but if he does as poorly in the next one it may have a serious effect on undecided voters.CalabogiePS I thought your post deserved a serious answer as it seemed to be a serious question.
... it was certainly a poor performance by Obama. It may be that he just doesn't care that much about the debates because he thinks he's got the election sown up.Obama will win the next debate and the election. Even Joe Biden will be able to dominate the VP debate with Ryan. Why? Because Obama has healed the economy and the numbers prove it. 7.9% unemployment - can you say "Win-ning?"Obama has finally gotten unemployment numbers below 8%, as promised. Job numbers are rising every month. Over a HUNDRED THOUSAND new jobs were created just last month and the previous numbers are being revised upward. That's a hundred thousand more people every month who will vote for Obama in gratitude for Ben Bernanke's creating their job.
Thank you, Calabogie. I appreciate a serious post and I agree with your post.
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