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I'm a big believer in dollar cost averaging, and we have made a great start at building our retirement fund. In another ten or fifteen years, however, I'll have a problem:

If I withdraw from my savings at a constant rate, I'll be selling fewer shares when their price is high, and more when they are low-- in other words, I'll be the victim, not the beneficiary, of dollar cost averaging.

I've thought about this quite a bit, but haven't really come up with anything profound. I have a pretty good knowledge of statistics, so I could probably come up with some sort of analysis that would give me a signal when a fund had hit a high or a low, but that's really just another method of timing the market, which I don't consider very reliable.

Any ideas?

Thanks alot,

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