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Author: tjscott0 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 734825  
Subject: Don't Fight the Numbers Date: 1/10/2013 12:59 PM
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There have been quite a few post here about how even the federal gov't spending & QE program will fail & bankrupt the country as one can't fight the math[numbers].

I'm gonna apply that to violent crime especially in regard to gun violence.

This theory was spawned by JoshRandall's "Choose Your Own Crime Stats" post
http://boards.fool.com/choose-your-own-crime-stats-30474640....

I went to FBI crime stat website:http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStateb...

I got total US violent crimes from 1960 to 2010. Violent crime increased from 1960 til it peaked in 1991. And violent crime really began to accelerate from 1967.

Now let's look at US population pyramids-1970-1990-2010
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://flatrock.org.nz/s...

My theory is that the baby boomer generation is very large. And that generally there are roughly the same percentage of criminals &/or violent people from generation to generation. And that crime is a young man's game [age 18 to 35]. The boomers became adults [age 18] from 1964 to 1982. And they hit age 35 from 1981 to 1999.

So I believe the increase in violence is due to the increase of young men in the population. And that the decrease in violence is due the US's aging population.

I see that the prison population has begun to decline a small amount. I would view an acceleration of the pace of decline a confirmation of my theory.
http://kottke.org/13/01/us-prison-population-on-the-decline

OK mebbe I have too much time on my hands.<g>

Next week off to Playa del Carmen to view the Mayan pyramids & hit the beaches.
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