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Don't let my "precision" fool you. I should have said at least 7.1%. The 7.1% increase is just $15.05/$14.05 (price at time of post, and not far from now!) With 6 more months to go, the bet looks good so far.

Why not 5 - 9% in 6 - 8 months? That range sounds fair.

Well, I think the stock is undervalued significantly. But even so, stocks on average go up about 10% a year, so even an overvalued stock can drift 7% in 7 months.

Some other 'guesses': the industry and S&P500 are now averaging a P/E of 16. WU is 10, and earnings are predicted to grow about 10% per year. That would suggest WU could rise quite a lot to "catch up" to the industry's valuation, but even so, could be expected to rise in price by 10% in a year just to maintain a P/E of 10. In other words, if the stock stays a current price, next year's P/E will shrink to 9.1, then 8.2, etc...

A few different valuation models put WU at $18-20 per share, a 25%-30% discount. If it takes three years to reach $20, that's 12% a year, or 1% a month. etc. etc.

That's my opinion, what's yours?
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