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Author: Hohum77 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3152  
Subject: Dry Bulk Update: Mar 2009 Date: 3/28/2009 1:13 AM
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Hi,
I have to start by correcting a comment I made last month
So three more Dry Bulk companies eliminated their dividend- EXM, SBLK, SB

it should have read So three more Dry Bulk companies reduced or eliminated their dividend- EXM, SBLK, SB . The last company, SB reduced their dividend, they did not eliminate it.

The data--

Shipper	31-Dec	30-Jan	27-Feb	27-Mar 
BHO* 2.50 3.70 2.10 2.38
DSX* 12.76 13.29 11.73 13.20
DRYS* 10.66 6.63 3.47 5.86
EXM* 7.04 6.60 3.86 5.31
EGLE* 6.82 5.34 3.76 4.72
ESEA 4.30 4.53 4.26 4.14
FREE* 1.39 1.28 0.73 1.48
GNK* 14.80 15.55 12.27 13.87
NM 3.16 3.58 2.11 2.64
NMM 7.14 8.17 7.79 8.71
OCNF* 2.97 3.52 1.01 1.55
PRGN 4.75 5.25 3.72 3.72
SBLK* 2.55 2.20 1.47 2.46
TBSI* 10.03 9.84 6.47 7.58
SB 6.68 6.30 3.80 3.39
ULTR* 3.19 2.28 2.06 2.68



There's a theme this month.
It is Dry Bulk company, go talk to your banks
The banks won't stop a company from operating, but they will take away privileges (company paid dividends - stop, share buy-backs - stop. I suspect companies are paying more to get debt covenant waivers). This
is also a month that, if you were quick and could pull the trigger on risky plays, some quick gains could be scored.


FREE - I suggested this one was a cigar-butt value play. A double over the past month, even though the had to go see their bankers.
They had to eliminate their dividend, but the price gain was double the
annual dividend. They have 53% TC vessel coverage, and getting work for the vessels on Spot

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/FreeSeas-Inc-Announces-2008-pz...


TBSI - Stock took a dive after delaying earnings. Then recovered very quickly before talking to banks. They just finished talking to a group of banks today. Didn't have a dividend to slash, so they got some tight controls

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TBS-International-Secures-iw-1...


EGLE - very choppy first week in March, but this one I watched.
They've talked to their bankers already, they still have ships joining their fleet. Most of those newbuild vessels have charters, and I think
EGLE added insurance. Seems a better bet to offer a 15-20% return if one find the right entry. I decided $4 was good enough last
week. Working, so far :)

DRYS - wish I could get this one! Their CEO is reckless, they have huge debt (already talked to some bankers regarding some of the debt) but its price movements are quite amazing. Its the one company to put on the radar screen if one wants to try trading Dry Bulk stocks.
March 25 the company announces a $1.0B loss, two days later the stock trades 22+% higher. DRYS got a previous bounce from a drillship contract announcement- certainly not a one trick pony.

SBLK - gave up on this one too early. Already talked to bankers- cut dividend, cut share buybacks. 87% gain for this one from start-of-month, but a possible double if one had entered a day or two later.

PRGN - No bank talks. But dividend slash from 43.75c/sh to 5c/sh mid-month. $3.17 => $4.20 (on earnings day) => $3.72 (3/27). I
think they should have talked to their bankers ;)

OCNF - Announced results in mid-March. Amended credit terms in mid January. Very nice bounce from the start of the month- about 82%

I'm not suggesting jumping in willy-nilly, but even half the monthly gains on any one of the above mentioned stocks would be nice.
Will it last? No idea.


Enjoy!
Hohum
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