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Author: Hohum77 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3224  
Subject: Dry Bulk Update: May 2008 Date: 5/31/2008 3:48 AM
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Anyone can take data, look at it, analyze it and form a theory. Two people can look at the very same data-set, and draw different conclusions, perhaps even opposing conclusions. Have said that, I will now describe Dry Bulk shipping in May 2008.

Have you met "Surge"? Surge showed up a couple of times in the Dry Bulk sector in 2007. Looking back, I'm thinking Surge showed up somewhere between the first and second week of April 2008. But wait, first the data.

Shipper	31-Dec	31-Jan	29-Feb	28-Mar	30-Apr	30-May 
BHO* 15.20 13.23 11.90 10.38 11.00 11.50
DSX 31.46 29.51 28.50 25.97 30.36 34.99
DRYS 77.40 74.43 75.30 62.31 82.50 93.80
EXM 40.19 38.06 31.87 30.91 39.71 51.30
EGLE 26.55 24.72 26.63 25.71 29.43 33.34
ESEA 12.40 12.02 14.02 11.82 13.78 15.62
FREE 6.00 5.69 5.10 5.66 6.87 7.00
GNK 54.76 49.59 58.27 56.64 67.65 70.24
NM 12.25 11.55 11.11 9.80 10.99 12.02
NMM 19.15 16.85 15.40 14.92 16.09 15.07
OCNF 19.23 19.51 22.03 22.73 22.64 26.52
PRGN 18.21 18.61 16.04 15.76 17.19 21.30
SBLK 12.85 11.48 11.96 11.46 12.58 13.98
TBSI* 33.06 33.31 34.44 31.00 40.18 46.58


* No dividend/recent dividend

Comparative bulk rate Mar : Apr: May (from shipping.capitallink.com website)
Baltic Dry 8,069 : 9,356 : 11,440
Baltic Capesize 11,815 : 14,173 : 18,719
Baltic Panamax 7,896 : 8,972 : 9,912
Baltic Supramax 4,916 : 5,444 : 6,405
Baltic Handysize 2,435 : 2,789 : 3,304

All gainers this month, but the intra month activity hides stuff.

So I mentioned Surge earlier, now see Surge in action in these companies.

DSX - More than Doubled revenue ( $78.9M vs $38.5M), 75% improvement in earnings (71c vs 40 c), bumped up dividend (85c/sh vs 60/sh). Report early, get a bounce. Start mid April, $27-ish to $32-ish, after earnings – all the way to $41-ish, then back down $35-ish
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080514/earns_diana_shipping.html?.v=...

ESEA - Great increase in revenue (140+%) and earnings (60+% ) vs previous year. One new vessel added to fleet, the 16th vessel is an intermediate container ship. Bumped up dividend to $0.31/sh. The ride started $13.50-ish-to $17.50-ish (May 19th) before earnings. About $16 on earnings day (5/28), and now below $16
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080528/0401526.html


DRYS - Revenue & earnings doubled. Unfortunately, the company reported after GNK, DSX, TBSI. Company is into this new business line- deep sea drilling. Acquired the remaining shares of Ocean Rig ASA, and plans on acquiring two additional ultra deep water drilling vessels ($800M each, but delivery not until late 2011). Adding on some debt for its Dry Bulk fleet additions (2 Capesize, 2 Panamax – total $469.7M) while selling off 4 Panamax vessel (around $150M). Starting mid-April $70-ish it did its running before earnings with a recent high of ~$112 on the day it reported(5/19). It was done, no additional bounce
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080519/0398644.html


EXM - revenue nearly doubled ($69.8M vs $36M), earnings more than tripled ($1.93/sh vs $0.61/sh), and QMAR acquisition doesn’t factor till Q2. Again, starting mid-April at $30-ish to $60.99 the day it reported (5/19), pulled back the same day. Attempts to get back hit a barrier at $57-ish- now bouncing. .
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080519/earns_excel_maritime_carriers...


EGLE - good results, early reporting company. Mid April $26-ish to $31-ish (first week of
May) at earnings, rode coat-tails of others to $36, then back down
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080506/earns_eagle_bulk_shipping.htm...

TBSI - Revenue increased 87% ($130.5M vs $70.3M), income more than tripled ($45M vs 14M). More ships, secondary offering. Their drive started $32-ish-to-$46-ish on earnings day (5/8). Early reporting helped, they continued their run to ~$62 (5/19), major pull-back to around $42-43, and now bouncing back up
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080508/0395305.html

GNK - Great earnings results ($2.56 vs $0.78). Dividend hike to $1/sh from $0.85/sh. Fleet expanding, primary & secondary offering of 3.7M shares + 560k shares for over-allotment.
One of the early reporting companies (4/30). Ride started around $60-ish-to$67-ish (4/30), upto $84-ish (5/16), down to ~$64, and back up to $70
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080430/nyw110.html?.v=101

FREE - Reported Q1 results. Doubled revenue, lower earnings due to derivative losses. Paid its first quarterly dividend. Fleet is expanding- one vessel in March, one in April, one in June/July 2008. The pattern $6.5-ish => $8.19 => $ 7
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/080515/142791.html

NM - Revenue increased 234%, earnings lower- What??? Yes, I’m Very disappointed.
Run started $10, and rode higher to ~$15 (5/19), down to ~$13 before earnings (5/29), and now a little lower
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080529/earns_navios_maritime.html?.v...

BHO - Easy to ignore this company- no dividend, troubles with operations. Sold two vessels for a profit. Helpful, since the company revenue is taking a hit while the company works on tanker conversions. No Surge here.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080515/20080515006257.html?.v=1

Surge offered various candidate stocks to go on a ride. The thing is Surge never tells you which ride provides the best bang-for-the-buck, nor when it's time to get off- you have to decide. The only pattern I notice is the start time (1st/2nd week of April) and in my opinion, the end was May 19th, the day DRYS reported. Along the way, 20%, 25%, 50%, and with extreme precision, EXM (perhaps a double) in 1.5-3 months.

Enjoy!
Hohum
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