Hello everyone,I'm analyzing some church collections data. In order to see if I need to do time series analysis, I have computed a durbin watson statistic for the data (1.8). I need some help on how to interpret this statistic and exactly what it means if I have positive autocorrelation. Is anyone out there up on this subject?Mikecupertino
Hi Mike,I don't think anyone else here will be interested but autocorrelation is just the correlation between two consecutive points in time in a series of one variable (like correlation is the correlation between 2 different variables at the same time). DW is a measure of lag 1 positive autocorrelation and a value<2 should be significant.When you do a regression the error terms are supposed to be independent. In a time series with autocorrelation this assumption is violated. If you are doing this for something like a thesis or for a large project at your job I would have somebody who knows how to do forecasting work on it.If you are doing a short range prediction for not a ton of money and you aren't worried about things like seasonality, risk management, or CIs, I probably would not worry about the autocorrelation. -Jeff
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