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Author: sykesix Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 58822  
Subject: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 2:56 PM
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This fall, I've made a series of posts documenting right-wing innumeracy when it comes to polling data. Polls of course are samples, and the poll data is only as good as the sample itself. One way to improve the data is to simply average several polls. Loren Cobb had an elegant and simply explanation on PA the other day why this works. There are several sites who do this for you. Nate Silver, is the famous one, but also Drew Linzter, Sam Wang, electoral-vote.com, etc.

If you average the polls and add up the electoral votes Obama wins comfortably. That's been true all summer and fall. Romney did gain some ground after the first debate, but the momentum shifted back toward Obama by mid-October and Obama is now almost back to where he was at the first debate. There is no Ro-mentum, in other words. Obama is the one with the momentum, if there is such a thing.

But an astonishing number of people of the right-wing simply don't believe the numbers. And on top that, they don't even seem to understand the numbers. I've made multiple posts on this topic before and this will probably be my last one before the election. Here is a round-up right wing pundits who don't understand math and their predictions. We'll find out soon enough if innumeracy is the best policy. Enjoy.

Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post: "Race is still up for grabs." She doesn't know about averaging polls to reduce uncertainty, so "take your pick" regarding which poll to believe, she advises.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/the-poll...

Unskewed polls predicts a Romney landslide:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20pres...

Michael Barone predicts Romney "wins handily." "Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals."

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-rom...

Dick Morris predicts a Romney landslide

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-her...

Kevin Holsberry (National Review) predicts a Romney win in Ohio

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground-ohio/332232/why-r...

Josh Jordon (National Review)"the size of Romney’s victory could be the biggest surprise of all."

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332170/turnout-game-jos...

Josh Jordan "Nate Silver's Model is flawed" His gut tells him so.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-...

Michael Franc (National Review) "If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests." Franc's article is a great one, because he believes the poll, but only the crosstabs, and rejects the topline.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-...

Karl "The Math" Rove "Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more."

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB1000142405297020484630...

Jay Cost "I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday." Another example of trusting the crosstabs, but ignoring the topline.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-why-i-think-...

And for your amusement, Romney supporter Steve Lombardo abuses the graphing function in Excel to demonstrate Romentum:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-lombardo/election-monito...
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Author: FoolYap Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46086 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 4:43 PM
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If Romney does win by a wide margin (or any margin), confounding the pollsters who seem most grounded in data, I wonder if here will finally be an investigation into the ties between GOP supporters (such as Romney's own son, but many others) and the manufacturers of electronic voting machines? The supporters who are often the owners of said manufacturers? The machines that have no verifiable paper trail? The machines with many well-documented security flaws?

Nah. I'm sure some celebrity will bare her boob or sing off-key, and we'll focus on that instead.

--FY

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Author: telegraph Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46087 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 5:11 PM
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"If Romney does win by a wide margin (or any margin), confounding the pollsters who seem most grounded in data, I wonder if here will finally be an investigation into the ties between GOP supporters (such as Romney's own son, but many others) and the manufacturers of electronic voting machines? The supporters who are often the owners of said manufacturers? The machines that have no verifiable paper trail? The machines with many well-documented security flaws?"

ALready looking for custom made excuses if 'the One' loses?

ree-dick-u-lous


the polls are showing a Romney blow out

The Redskins lost at home..meaning the incumbent will lose

Election day is Nov 6. No incumbent in the past 100 years has won an election on Nov 6

The odds are stacked against four more years of 'hopey changey' that changed things for the worse.

Thank goodness.


t.

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Author: sykesix Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46088 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 5:17 PM
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the polls are showing a Romney blow out

Only if you are innumerate.

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Author: Howie52 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46091 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 8:48 PM
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"the polls are showing a Romney blow out

Only if you are innumerate. "

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

An actual poll will be completed Tuesday that will have a meaningful
result.
The winner of that poll will be sworn in in 2013 and will lead the
country as chief executive and run the executive branch of the government
for 4 years.

Whoever wins that particular poll has been positioned such that
they will be hard-placed to bring the country together.
I hope that whoever wins tries to listen to more than a narrow
constituency of lemmings or sheep.

Howie52

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46092 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 8:53 PM
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"An actual poll will be completed Tuesday that will have a meaningful
result. The winner of that poll will be sworn in in 2013 and will lead the
country as chief executive and run the executive branch of the government
for 4 years.Whoever wins that particular poll has been positioned such thatthey will be hard-placed to bring the country together.I hope that whoever wins tries to listen to more than a narrow constituency of lemmings or sheep." Howie52

--------------------


Thank God! I'm ready for it to be over. If Romney wins I'll continue to breath air, eat food, drink, sleep, urinate and defecate, and watch TV. If Obama wins I'll also continue to breath air, eat food, drink, urinate, defecate, sleep, and watch TV.

Another words I'll continue to go on living regardless of who wins. In fact I doubt much will change in my life. I'll drive the same car, live in the same house, sleep in the same bed, and be married to the same woman, and watch the same TV shows.

Art

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Author: lindytoes Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46093 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 9:19 PM
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Thank God! I'm ready for it to be over. -- Art


Well, I'm going to Panama. I'm ready to blow this rinky dink democracy to swim and snorkel in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and visit La Amistad National Park in the mountains of Panama.

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Author: Howie52 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46094 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/4/2012 11:13 PM
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"going to Panama. "

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Avoid becoming a yellow fever victim.

Howie52
and a fan of "Arsenic and Old Lace"

Have a fun time.

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46096 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 12:34 AM
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"Well, I'm going to Panama. I'm ready to blow this rinky dink democracy to swim and snorkel in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and visit La Amistad National Park in the mountains of Panama." - lindytoes


I jokingly told my friends on the "other board" that if Romney wins you may go to Panama and stay there for the next four years while he is in office.

Artie

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Author: Mosquito7778 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46097 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 12:22 PM
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ree-dick-u-lous


the polls are showing a Romney blow out

The Redskins lost at home..meaning the incumbent will lose

Election day is Nov 6. No incumbent in the past 100 years has won an election on Nov 6

The odds are stacked against four more years of 'hopey changey' that changed things for the worse.

Thank goodness.


t.


Your "data" are indeed ridiculous. Here is an interesting comic related to that http://www.xkcd.com/1122/

Election day is Nov 6. No incumbent in the past 100 years has won an election on Nov 6

This (completely false) statement of yours I found particularily interesting.
Here are some actual FACTS:

Nov 6, 1984: Reagan (incumbent won)
Nov 6, 1956: Eisenhower (incumbent won)
Nov 6, 1928: Hoover won (no incumbent running)
Nov 6, 1900: McKinley (incumbent won)


Did you just completely make that up? Or did you get that from somewhere else? If so, maybe you need to be more careful choosing your sources of "information".

Regardss,
Mosquito

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Author: telegraph Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46098 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 12:38 PM
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"Well, I'm going to Panama. I'm ready to blow this rinky dink democracy to swim and snorkel in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and visit La Amistad National Park in the mountains of Panama." - lindytoes"


Back to grade school again for you.

We don't live in a 'democracy'. We live in a Constitutional Republic.

If you lived in a 'democracy' , probably all the whites would have voted to send all the African Americans back to Africa about in 1865......

If you lived in a democracy, you'd likely never have women voting because the men, who controlled in in the 1920s, would never have voted to let women vote.

Fortunately for you and 1/3rd of the US, we live under a Constitution and Bill of Rights.


t.

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Author: telegraph Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46099 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 12:43 PM
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"Nov 6, 1984: Reagan (incumbent won) Republican
Nov 6, 1956: Eisenhower (incumbent won) Republican
Nov 6, 1928: Hoover won (no incumbent running) - Republican
Nov 6, 1900: McKinley (incumbent won) - Republican


Did you just completely make that up? Or did you get that from somewhere else? If so, maybe you need to be more careful choosing your sources of "information".

Regardss,
Mosquito "


Maybe I should have said DEMOCRAT INCUMBENT has won? That's the truth.



t.

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Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46102 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 7:23 PM
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If you lived in a 'democracy' , probably all the whites would have voted to send all the African Americans back to Africa about in 1865......

And yet the elected representatives, virtually all white males, didn't do that.

If you lived in a democracy, you'd likely never have women voting because the men, who controlled in in the 1920s, would never have voted to let women vote.

And yet the elected representatives, virtually all men, didn't do that.

Fortunately for you and 1/3rd of the US, we live under a Constitution and Bill of Rights.

Cool. Can we get religion out of government?
 


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Author: sykesix Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46103 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 9:11 PM
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Back to grade school again for you.

We don't live in a 'democracy'. We live in a Constitutional Republic.


Hate to break the news to you, but we live in a democracy and a republic.

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Author: ariechert Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46104 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/5/2012 11:50 PM
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"Cool. Can we get religion out of government?" - GoofyHoofy


No, I don't think so. Government is made up of people and people are a matrix or mandala of everything of everything that they have been immersed in all their lives. Our thinking and the way we live is influenced by everything that has happened to us in our entire lives, even when we have consciously tried to negate it.

From the moment we are born each one of us is influenced by our parents, siblings, aunts and uncles, friends, teachers, peer group, books we have read, music we listen to, etc. It is downloaded into our brain and turns us into the people we are throughout our lives.

It is irrelevant what label we choose to wear, like "atheist" Christian, Muslim, etc. Those labels are just words, and they are temporary, and are not who we truly are. At best they only partially tell who we are.

The "real me" is buried and hidden deep inside me and only rised to the surface during times of stress and trials in life. Otherwise I keep hidden who I really am.

Art

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Author: sykesix Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46123 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/6/2012 11:46 PM
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If you average the polls and add up the electoral votes Obama wins comfortably. That's been true all summer and fall. Romney did gain some ground after the first debate, but the momentum shifted back toward Obama by mid-October and Obama is now almost back to where he was at the first debate. There is no Ro-mentum, in other words. Obama is the one with the momentum, if there is such a thing.

But an astonishing number of people of the right-wing simply don't believe the numbers. And on top that, they don't even seem to understand the numbers. I've made multiple posts on this topic before and this will probably be my last one before the election. Here is a round-up right wing pundits who don't understand math and their predictions. We'll find out soon enough if innumeracy is the best policy. Enjoy.


Welp, the votes are mostly in, and it is clear that Obama wins. As I mentioned above, that result was clear long ago. That comment has nothing to do with partisan bias, just simple arithmetic.

There are a large number of people who rejected arithmetic for reasons of their own. They all happen to be on the same side of the political spectrum. That makes no sense to me. I'll go a little bit farther. The Republicans rejecting math is *why* they lost the campaign. If you can't accept simple arithmetic, you are lying to yourself. If your path to victory includes lying to yourself, you have long, hard path.

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Author: salaryguru Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46146 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/7/2012 6:56 PM
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Karl Rove, Rupert Murdoch, the Koch brothers and other wealthy elitists have been demagoguing the innumerate, wing-nuts for several years. They need the tea-bagger mental midgets to believe in their nonsense and to show up and cast their ill-informed votes for all the brain dead candidates that Republican bosses have in their pockets. If they were honest and admitted that Romney doesn't have a prayer, then they would lose even more ground this election than they have. So FuxNews tells the wing-nuts what they want to hear and the morons run off and execute the command of their corporate masters.

I'm being too kind. I know.

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Author: sykesix Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 46147 of 58822
Subject: Re: Election Roundup Date: 11/7/2012 7:47 PM
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Karl Rove, Rupert Murdoch, the Koch brothers and other wealthy elitists have been demagoguing the innumerate, wing-nuts for several years. They need the tea-bagger mental midgets to believe in their nonsense and to show up and cast their ill-informed votes for all the brain dead candidates that Republican bosses have in their pockets. If they were honest and admitted that Romney doesn't have a prayer, then they would lose even more ground this election than they have. So FuxNews tells the wing-nuts what they want to hear and the morons run off and execute the command of their corporate masters.

I'm being too kind. I know.


This has been making the rounds on the Internet, so you may have seen it already, but just in case. Here is Karl Rove disputing Fox News' call that Ohio was going for Obama:

http://youtu.be/vJg3z5c93zU

The next part features Megyn Kelly actually walking down the hall to the Fox decision desk where the analysts tell her they totally comfortable with their prediction and Rove is FOS.

I give props to Rove for taking one for the team, but he made the boss look bad and at that point there was no benefit to keeping up the facade.

Now Rove has failed to predict two consecutive elections where the outcome was never in doubt. The only thing in doubt now is Rove's future as a Fox News pundit.

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