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Excellent analysis. Progressive is very impressive, indeed.

My guess is Buffett would prefer to grow organically and Berkshire would rather buy back its own stock at 1.2 Times than Progressive at 3 times book.

I'm no expert-but just a few thoughts: I also wonder how much of Progressive's business would walk out the door when its re-priced at GEICO. GEICO and Progressive have their own proprietary pricing models. My guess is-a lot of GEICO's book of business is much more expensive at Progressive and a lot of Progressive's business is a lot more expensive at GEICO. Plus, you're in an arena--especially with these 2 players--where there's considerable churn to begin with.

But, yes, the appeal of acquiring that float is attractive. And I agree it would be very tough to make an anti-trust case against the hypothetical merged entity
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