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Author: franchot Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 465046  
Subject: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/28/2013 2:43 PM
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It's bizarre, isn't it? According to some bloggers re the meltdown in Cyprus, nobody is more deserving of seeing their capital eviscerated by the state than

A) savers
B) successful savers

The last fifteen years has seen a global onslaught against savers, via idiotically low interest rates. Low interest rates promoted by central banks in collusion with politicians have led to grotesque distortions in the calculation of 'risk.'

This monetary policy has stimulated numerous commodity bubbles. And politicos luv commodity bubbles. As long as they don't blow up during the short tenure of whichever party is in situ. Meanwhile, the straitjacket of the single currency has enabled Germany to massively increase exports to a record breaking €1 trillion by diluting the Deutschmark with the Peso/Drachma/Lira/etc/etc. Meanwhile, peripheral members of Club Schauble have been enabled to borrow and spend way beyond their economic capacity. The upshot? It is some kind of indictment of global interest rates that 5% is currently perceived as indicative of money laundering and criminality. The grotesque bubble inflating risk of having an interest rate of less than 1% is never discussed. The confiscation of capital is much more palatable if the media doesn't like the cut of the jib of certain depositors. The message to savers? Don't. Considering the fact that capitalism is dependent upon banks lending from deposits to entrepreneurs who wish to borrow? Er, print on. The consequence of these reckless policies? Those who are denouncing depositors as being 'money launderers or criminals?' Be careful what you wish for:

Capital controls have shattered the monetary unity of EMU. A Cypriot euro is no longer a core euro. We wait to hear the first stories of shops across Europe refusing to accept euro notes issued by Cyprus, with a G in the serial number. The curbs are draconian. There will be a forced rollover of debt. Cheques may not be cashed. Basic cross-border trade is severely curtailed. Credit card use abroad will be limited to €5,000 (£4,200) a month. “We wonder how such capital controls could eventually be lifted with no obvious cure of the underlying problem,” said Credit Suisse. The complicity of EU authorities in the original plan to violate insured bank savings – halted only by the revolt of the Cypriot parliament – leaves the suspicion that they will steal anybody’s money if leaders of the creditor states think it is in their immediate interest to do so. Monetary union has become a danger to property. Ambrose Evans Pritchard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_prit...
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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419131 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/28/2013 3:13 PM
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The last fifteen years has seen a global onslaught against savers, via idiotically low interest rates. Low interest rates promoted by central banks in collusion with politicians have led to grotesque distortions in the calculation of 'risk.'

Don't forget the degree to which QE (in addition to Zero Interest) attacks savers, by both reducing the purchasing power vis-a-vis devaluation, and also by "displacement," since free & easy QE money relieves banks from dependence upon customers and their deposits. QE likewise relieves governments from dependence upon income taxes from savers' interest income.

The system no longer needs savers. Period. Accordingly, savers should remove their savings from the system until they receive the compensation they deserve for the system's inherent risk.

By the way, here's a pretty funny on-target illustration of today's banking system that goes well with the "Fasten Your Seatbelts" theme of this thread:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/8595986756/

QE Infinity Airplane

;-)

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Author: PolymerMom Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419153 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/28/2013 9:53 PM
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Ummm, there's more to the story than picking on "savers". Cyprus banks sheltered/laundered something like 800% of the GDP for various entities.

Investors should always take the bumps in the road with the knowledge that there always will be bumps in the road. Cyprus is one of those unforeseen bumps. A tiny island, where reputed mobsters hid their money, where the banks were renowned as a safe place to hide money away from prying eyes, and where money flowed carefree. This is not an example of what will happen to the financial system elsewhere.

This is a very special case, where the EU knew that it was a waste of money to guarantee and loan money to rescue the banks there. They let those that used this money haven, pay the price of using this haven. More than anything, it is part of the universal crackdown on money laundering and illegitimate hiding of monies obtained under suspect circumstances.


http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/3427961-larry-cyna/1698701...

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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419155 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/28/2013 10:18 PM
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A tiny island, where reputed mobsters hid their money, where the banks were renowned as a safe place to hide money away from prying eyes, and where money flowed carefree.

Mom,

I understand the circumstances that brought about the collapse. However, the farmers and ordinary citizens did not set up the banks or the fractional reserve system. In addition, the Russian money escaped through the back door last week, conveniently left open so the wealthiest would still have access to their cash through London, etc.

I find it hard to believe that any civilized people would, in an effort to punish behavior of past culprits, set up circumstances where cash specie is necessary for the survival of innocents and then withhold the very cash specie that lawfully belongs to the said innocents.

Making scapegoats of innocents is a medieval and torturous practice, no matter how bad the behavior of the untouchable nobles of Russia who already escaped.

This episode should be a death knell for fractional reserve banking, but of course it won't be.

Like the farmer said, the big pigs eat the weak ones.

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Author: PolymerMom Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419156 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/28/2013 10:56 PM
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notehound,

I totally agree that the little guy is hurting. I don't lay the blame at the feet of fractional reserve banking. Instead, the fault lies with the misconceived European Monetary Union, and its various manifestations. One size does not fit all! Besides, the government of Cyprus turned a blind eye/encouraged to the money laundering banks.

There's plenty of blame to go around w/o getting into fractional reserve banking as the root of all evil.

PM

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Author: flyerboys Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419166 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 4:58 AM
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I was fascinated to hear, from a very well connected and educated German with significant wealth, that the "only possible explanation" for Germany's shortsighted and extravagantly poor mismanagement of the euro crisis:

... is that Merkel is a Russian mole, a pawn of Putin, set on destroying the economy and eventually the social cohesion of Europe, leaving it under the control of energy rich Russia.

This guy was not kidding, as he is moving all his considerable assets out of Europe -- mostly Germany -- as quickly as he can reasonably liquidate them, and is choosing between setting up residency in USA, Australia, Canada.

At first I thought it was just the furious musings of an imaginative mind but now I am haunted by his insistence that "no other theory can explain the facts before us."

I doubt it! But no question the damage being done now is enormous, first in capital flight but also in collapse of confidence in all institutions. What a disaster.

david fb

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Author: SuisseBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419168 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 6:26 AM
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The confiscation of capital is much more palatable if the media doesn't like the cut of the jib of certain depositors.

Good point. Especially in context of an 'interesting' Bundesbank study just released:

Germans have never warmed to the idea of using their financial muscle to bail out struggling eurozone neighbours. Perhaps for good reason. A central bank study shows most Germans are worse off than those in some of the economies that have stoked the crisis.

The typical German household is three times less wealthy than its Spanish or Italian counterpart, according to a Bundesbank study of personal wealth that was published this week. Whereas the median Spanish household has net wealth of €178,000, the equivalent in Germany is €51,000.

The findings contrast sharply with other aspects of eurozone economic performance, with Germany’s average gross domestic product per head almost a quarter higher than Spain’s. Germany’s unemployment rate is close to record lows at 5.3 per cent while Spain’s has soared above 26 per cent.

Germany’s relatively low level of home ownership is one of the principal reasons suggested for the wealth disparity. The study – released as the banking crisis in Cyprus reawakened fears of a rupture in the eurozone – has prompted online comments showing the hostility felt by some Germans, who feel they are being asked to pay for the sins of others.

“It gives the word crisis a whole new meaning. Has Ms Merkel seen this?” commented one reader on magazine Der Spiegel’s website. Another said: “Southern Europeans have been getting rich for years at Germany’s expense.” ...


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2f89e5ee-930a-11e2-9593-00144...


While the findings are not to be dismissed entirely, the study misrepresents by putting so much focus on the median rather than average wealth... and omitting stuff like retirement claims. Ominous...

SB

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Author: SuisseBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419169 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 6:31 AM
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... is that Merkel is a Russian mole, a pawn of Putin, set on destroying the economy and eventually the social cohesion of Europe, leaving it under the control of energy rich Russia.

Lol! That's a long shot, compared to a theory of mere populism and shortsightedness combined with incompetence.

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Author: SuisseBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419170 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 6:49 AM
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How is this for a Bloomberg headline:

Betray Your Bank Before Your Bank Betrays You

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/betray-your-bank-be...

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Author: flyerboys Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419172 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 7:58 AM
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SB: omitting stuff like retirement claims. Ominous..

Very simple but big stuff: far more spaniards own their homes than do Germans, but the statistical estimate of the value of those homes is badly inflated.

david fb

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419175 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 8:43 AM
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... is that Merkel is a Russian mole, a pawn of Putin, set on destroying ...

Lol! That's a long shot, compared to a theory of mere populism ...


SB

Not to mention the vaunted German casual xenophobia. My German neighbour one time was ranting to me about all those Ausländer moving into the neighbourhood after the wall came down. I mentioned that I was an Ausländer and she having known me for years replied “Yes but you are a good Ausländer”. The odd part was the people she was talking about were East Germans or people of German descent coming from Russia. }};-D


Any <somewhat amused> mouse

OT – Funny story: Because the Abfall (garbage pickup) around holidays was confusing I once asked her what day it was rather than take the time to look it up. She said “I don’t know, I always watch and see what you do... actually the whole street watches to see what you do”. }};-()

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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419177 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 9:00 AM
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SB,

The following excerpts from the cited article are a nice summation:

The one constant among bailouts of euro-area countries is that there is no rhyme or reason, much less fairness, in the way many details get worked out...

Much good might come from restoring some semblance of normalcy to the hierarchy of creditors in banking. Even better would be to see Germany try it for a change with its own zombie lenders, such as Commerzbank AG (CBK), which is still partly government-owned after its bailout in 2009...

The way it’s supposed to work at failing banks is that shareholders get wiped out first. Next the losses go up the ladder from junior debt holders to senior bondholders, and then all the way to uninsured depositors, if need be. Taxpayers and insured depositors shouldn’t have to absorb others’ losses or put money at risk to spare them. Troubled banks should have to fend for themselves.

This was the approach imposed on Cyprus. In ordinary circumstances, it would be considered fair. The best argument for why it wasn’t is that Cyprus had been lulled into believing it would be treated just as well as Europe’s other bailout recipients. The entire country got hooked on moral hazard.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/betray-your-bank-be...

The rules are now clear:

Rule No. 1:

"Moral Hazard is Dying"

Rule No. 2:

"If your bank is one of the money center banks in Germany, England or the US, ignore Rule No. 1"

Moral Hazard now reigns supreme only among the well-connected. It only took 5 years to reach this point. It remains to be seen when, if ever, one can pronounce:

"Moral Hazard is Dead."

Time will tell.

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Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419178 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 9:19 AM
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At first I thought it was just the furious musings of an imaginative mind but now I am haunted by his insistence that "no other theory can explain the facts before us."

I have a theory that I put forth privately before this Cyprus crisis occurred (or at least before it burst open).

I told a friend of mine that when Japan actively pursued weakening the value of the Yen that Germany, who stood to lose much in exports, would not stand idly by and allow themselves to lose market share.

I then sat down one afternoon and tried to figure out how Germany, who was only one of 16 or 17 Euro-member nations could weaken the Euro. The solution that flashed before my eyes was the insight that soon Germany would take a hard-line position with the next Euro country needing financial assistance. The line would be so firm as to once again call the viability of the Euro into question. This would lead to a weaker Euro and, Viola!, they would again be competitive with the devalued Yen.

Now, don't get me wrong, Germany does not want the Euro to fail, they just want the world to believe it might.

Why doesn't Germany want the Euro to fail? Because if Germany went back to the Deutsch Mark, it would immediately become one of the strongest currencies in the world thus defeating the whole exercise in the first place.

So my vote is that Japan's weakening of the Yen has caused Germany to respond in a way that crushes Cyprus and calls into question the viability of the Euro. Anyone notice the Euro plunging in value lately?

Poz

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419181 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 9:58 AM
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So my vote is that Japan's weakening of the Yen has caused Germany to respond in a way that crushes Cyprus and calls into question the viability of the Euro. Anyone notice the Euro plunging in value lately?

Poz



I'd vote for that.


Tim

http://boards.fool.com/she-who-runs-first-runs-best-who-are-...

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Author: SuisseBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419183 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 10:04 AM
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The rules are now clear:

Rule No. 1:

"Moral Hazard is Dying"

Rule No. 2:

"If your bank is one of the money center banks in Germany, England or the US, ignore Rule No. 1"



For certain banks, that is. For savers, not so much, as the Telegraph points out:

But don’t suppose that being outside the euro has spared British savers the same injustice. In many respects, the damage has been worse, undermining the nation’s wealth much more comprehensively than the comparatively minor haircut Europe is attempting to impose on Cyprus. It’s just that the British haircut is being done in a different and more subtle way. [...] The prime minister, Gordon Brown, later promised that not a single UK depositor would lose money in the wider banking crisis.

In terms of the nominal, sterling value of deposits, they spoke the truth – well, sort of, for Britain imposed its own version of Cyprus’s deposit tax some years ago in the form of the banking levy, which is a charge, albeit a very small one, on wholesale deposits. British savers have also been persistently leached through low interest rates to pay for the bad debts of the boom.

Yet the main difference is that in Britain the damage to savings has been external, through currency devaluation, rather than as proposed for tiny little Cyprus, internal. This has had a devastating impact on the relative worth of British savings.

Your British pounds are today worth nearly 25pc less in Cyprus than they were five years ago, even though Cyprus has arguably had a worse banking crisis. Elevated British inflation – in part, a direct consequence of devaluation – has done the rest. Even after the haircut, the Cypriot nest egg will look in much better shape than the British counterpart, all other things being equal.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/993...


SB
(image of frog sitting in heating water coming to mind again)

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Author: qazulight Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419186 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 10:31 AM
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I then sat down one afternoon and tried to figure out how Germany, who was only one of 16 or 17 Euro-member nations could weaken the Euro. The solution that flashed before my eyes was the insight that soon Germany would take a hard-line position with the next Euro country needing financial assistance. The line would be so firm as to once again call the viability of the Euro into question. This would lead to a weaker Euro and, Viola!, they would again be competitive with the devalued Yen.

That! Is serious good thinking.

Cheers
Qazulight

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Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419191 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 11:06 AM
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That! Is serious good thinking.

Thanks, Qazulight. Don't know if it is valid, but the timing and nature of the developments are suspiciously coincidental.

Poz

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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419195 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 11:45 AM
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I then sat down one afternoon and tried to figure out how Germany, who was only one of 16 or 17 Euro-member nations could weaken the Euro. The solution that flashed before my eyes was the insight that soon Germany would take a hard-line position with the next Euro country needing financial assistance. The line would be so firm as to once again call the viability of the Euro into question. This would lead to a weaker Euro and, Viola!, they would again be competitive with the devalued Yen.

Poz,

You are truly among the best at peeling back the layers of the onion.

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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419196 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 11:55 AM
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...the timing and nature of the developments are suspiciously coincidental.

And it has just enough tin foil hat in it to be true.

Ever wonder about how Libor is set? Oh yeah, now we know.

Dittos with the gold fix... and more recently, the silver fix.

Sometimes it's difficult to tell the intended from the unintended consequences.

I guess it all is just a matter of perspective as to which is which.

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Author: ItsGoingUp Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419204 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 1:06 PM
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flyerboys writes about some German guy's "only possible explanation":
... is that Merkel is a Russian mole, a pawn of Putin, set on destroying the economy and eventually the social cohesion of Europe, leaving it under the control of energy rich Russia.

In the 1972 film Cabaret, a minor German character argues why the world has gone to hell:
"It's an established fact that there exists a well organized international conspiracy of Jewish bankers and communists."

People make up reasons for stuff. Yes, it's getting bad. And scary. Nazis?

-IGU-

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Author: qazulight Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419208 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 1:12 PM
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That! Is serious good thinking.

Thanks, Qazulight. Don't know if it is valid, but the timing and nature of the developments are suspiciously coincidental.

Poz,

I don't know about the conclusions either. However, the process and the discipline is what I am impressed with and wish I did it more and we had a way of incentivising that type of thinking within our community.

Cheers
Qazulight

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Author: xLife Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419211 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 1:23 PM
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It's bizarre, isn't it? According to some bloggers re the meltdown in Cyprus, nobody is more deserving of seeing their capital eviscerated by the state than

A) savers
B) successful savers


I think this more true in the U.S. than Cyprus.

I'm not sure I'd call large foreign deposits in Cypriot banks "savings." They're more like interest-seeking investments, currency and political hedges.

And when banks fail, uninsured depositors are supposed to lose out... after shareholders and bondholders. Uninsured depositors are only being screwed if a bailout increases their haircut to protect shareholders and bondholders.

That's sort of what's happening in the U.S. By repressing interest rates, the Fed is "stealing" from depositors to enrich shareholders, not to mention the bankers themselves.

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Author: PosFCF Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419222 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 2:42 PM
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I don't know about the conclusions either. However, the process and the discipline is what I am impressed with and wish I did it more and we had a way of incentivising that type of thinking within our community.

For me, the incentivizing atmosphere has always been less dogma and more civility combined with the promotion of curiosity. Unfortunately, as I get older the spontaneous tendencies seem to be dogmatic, been-there-already, and cranky when challenged.....a bit away from the ideal, I'd say.

Poz

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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419244 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/29/2013 8:39 PM
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Never attribute to design what can be attributed to incompetence.

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Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419259 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/30/2013 2:10 AM
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Never attribute to design what can be attributed to incompetence.

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419267 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 3/30/2013 6:40 AM
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Never attribute to design what can be attributed to incompetence.

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.



Ian Fleming, he used it in Goldfinger.

As for the other one I always used "Never attribute to malice that what can be attributed to incompetence and stupidity.", while it was intended for military leadership it would have worked well for many politicians.

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Author: sailrmac Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419423 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 4/1/2013 7:21 PM
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Oh, it's much simplier than all that. They'll vote for taking from the other guy to solve their problem.

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Author: franchot Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 419844 of 465046
Subject: Re: Fasten Your Seatbelts Date: 4/6/2013 10:59 AM
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At first I thought it was just the furious musings of an imaginative mind but now I am haunted by his insistence that "no other theory can explain the facts before us."

Interesting theory flyers!

But no question the damage being done now is enormous, first in capital flight but also in collapse of confidence in all institutions. What a disaster.

Absolutely. The Euro project is an abject lesson in the unintended consequences wrought by central planning. Many moons ago, one Cassandra warned of the dangers of the single currency:

"It was folly to create this system. It will be written about for centuries as a kind of historical monument to collective folly. But it's there and we have to deal with it,..I described the euro as a burning building with no exits and so it has proved for some of the countries in it

Those words appear particularly prescient today, with 25% unemployment in Spain, the collapse of the Cypriot banking sector and the inevitable flight of money from the Eurozone, as you cite above......

A fundamental principle of monetary union – that the currency is worth the same, wherever it is held and whoever holds it – has been shattered. Some euros, it would seem, are more equal than others. The possibility of capital controls to prevent deposit flight when the banks reopen only further clouds the picture. Free movement of capital is another basic principle of monetary union which the eurozone seems casually prepared to disregard. This is not a proper currency.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/995...

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