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Author: CarlHungus Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76074  
Subject: Re: Questions on diversification and MPT Date: 5/31/2011 2:51 PM
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First off, thanks to everyone for the input. I'm consolidating replies into one post:

The link below is to Rick Ferri's blog site. Rick is a CFA and has written six investment books. The blog linked to below is titled: "How to Choose Egg Baskets"

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I can't link to it directly but the link below will take you to the Amazon "look inside" search for Richard Ferri's book "All About Asset Allocation".

Very informative. I've done a cursory review but plan to do a more in-depth review this week. Thanks guys.

One of the problems with trying to implement your asset allocation based on modern portfolio theory is that the correlation between asset classes is constantly changing which means that the optimal strategy is also always changing. When you look at the nice long term MPT charts seem to show a clear strategy, but when you look at this by decade the optimal strategy is different for each decade...

This shows how the chart is all over the place when graphed by decade. This doesn't mean that MPT is useless, but to me a least it instead of showing and absolute best strategy it instead shows more a general style of how and why to mix your asset classes


Agree with this. What kinds of strategies do you use to hone in on proper allocation?

Do you need a retirement income of $40,000 year vs. 60K vs. 100K?

If you know your goal ... then the vehicle to get you there becomes more easily identified.

When I say 'written down", I don't mean a 15 minute, off the top of your head 'spoof'. I mean a thoughtful, 18 month effort.


I've got a target that was arrived at with analysis that falls somewhere between "15 minutes" and "18 months". I do plan to continue to refine this work.

I am guessing you are at least 25 years from retirement and it may be longer.

Correct. Probably around 30 years, if you average me and my wife.

I suggest you get a copy of Quicken and keep track of your spending. I don't see the need to account for every single penny, but if "Unaccounted" is more than 0.5%, I would wonder about projections.

I started doing this in January. Once I have a full year of data, I plan to use it to refine our savings goal, as mentioned above.

Thanks again.

-CH
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