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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 14640  
Subject: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 12:04 PM
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It's *really* hard to find something falling today, but Chesapeake is one.
CHK at $16.38, down -1.28% today at the moment, with the average S&P 500 stock up 1.56%.

I first entered my position in June when the stock was at about $19.04,
but I'm in a modest profit position because the puts are so darned juicy.
The stock has to keep falling at a rate faster than this for me to lose.
Of course, I don't make any money unless and until it stops falling,
and I lose money if the rate of decline picks up speeds on trend.

Jim
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Author: stillwater9999 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13068 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 1:46 PM
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Would not touch (catch) it as long as a certain Aubrey M is involved. APA is the class act for investors wanting to bet on NG.

sw

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Author: TomFoolNC Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13069 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 2:52 PM
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Board is much more independent than it used to be. Icahn has at least one member and Lou Simpson is a member. LUK has a huge chuck of this stock also.

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Author: BenHacker Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13070 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 2:55 PM
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Tom,

LUK has a huge chuck of this stock also.

Source please? I had not seen this...

Ben

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Author: TomFoolNC Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13071 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 2:59 PM
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sorry, Longleaf Partners

Chesapeake Energy (common & preferred) Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.6%

I own both so got mixed up

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Author: rjf53 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13072 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 3:15 PM
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It's *really* hard to find something falling today, but Chesapeake is one.

Cheer up Jim RRC is down 2%, UPL 3% so technically your showing relative strength. :<)

B

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Author: rnam Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13073 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 3:45 PM
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I think DVN and APA are safer bets. Better diversification into liquids as well as geographically. Plus much more trustworthy management and BOD than CHK.

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Author: TomFoolNC Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13074 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/2/2013 5:08 PM
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timely article on CHK, Longleaf and the makeup of the board

http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2013/01/02/two-celebr...

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Author: CM001 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13075 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/3/2013 10:50 AM
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Jim/ others, where do you value CHK?

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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 13076 of 14640
Subject: Re: FKA: CHK Date: 1/3/2013 3:38 PM
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Jim/ others, where do you value CHK?

If it's insanely run and NG prices stay low, current prices.
If it's merely badly run the way most firms are, $25-$30ish. Central scenario,
as I expect their leverage issues to be worked off and positive cash flow soonish.
If it's reasonably well run (e.g., keeping promises to switch to exploiting the existing assets), $45.
If it's well run and natural gas prices rise to the relatively sustainable
marginal cost for new production, up to $60. They have a lot of assets.

But this kind of thing really requires much deeper analysis than I'm capable of.
I'm relying on analysis by some other parties, which is a bad idea.
It fits into one's portfolio only if you're looking for something that is
a big bet on NG price recovery with a huge amount of potential upside.
Or if you're using it as a small piece of a diversified put writing
portfolio, which is what I'm doing. I don't need the stock price to
rise to do well, I need little more than that they stay in business
and that the stock price stabilize at some point.
Ideal for me is if the stock price stabilizes long before the market's worries evaporate.

Jim

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