It's *really* hard to find something falling today, but Chesapeake is one.CHK at $16.38, down -1.28% today at the moment, with the average S&P 500 stock up 1.56%.I first entered my position in June when the stock was at about $19.04, but I'm in a modest profit position because the puts are so darned juicy.The stock has to keep falling at a rate faster than this for me to lose.Of course, I don't make any money unless and until it stops falling,and I lose money if the rate of decline picks up speeds on trend.Jim
Would not touch (catch) it as long as a certain Aubrey M is involved. APA is the class act for investors wanting to bet on NG.sw
Board is much more independent than it used to be. Icahn has at least one member and Lou Simpson is a member. LUK has a huge chuck of this stock also.
Tom,LUK has a huge chuck of this stock also.Source please? I had not seen this...Ben
sorry, Longleaf PartnersChesapeake Energy (common & preferred) Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.6%I own both so got mixed up
It's *really* hard to find something falling today, but Chesapeake is one.Cheer up Jim RRC is down 2%, UPL 3% so technically your showing relative strength. :<)B
I think DVN and APA are safer bets. Better diversification into liquids as well as geographically. Plus much more trustworthy management and BOD than CHK.
timely article on CHK, Longleaf and the makeup of the boardhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2013/01/02/two-celebr...
Jim/ others, where do you value CHK?
Jim/ others, where do you value CHK? If it's insanely run and NG prices stay low, current prices.If it's merely badly run the way most firms are, $25-$30ish. Central scenario,as I expect their leverage issues to be worked off and positive cash flow soonish.If it's reasonably well run (e.g., keeping promises to switch to exploiting the existing assets), $45.If it's well run and natural gas prices rise to the relatively sustainablemarginal cost for new production, up to $60. They have a lot of assets.But this kind of thing really requires much deeper analysis than I'm capable of.I'm relying on analysis by some other parties, which is a bad idea.It fits into one's portfolio only if you're looking for something that isa big bet on NG price recovery with a huge amount of potential upside.Or if you're using it as a small piece of a diversified put writing portfolio, which is what I'm doing. I don't need the stock price torise to do well, I need little more than that they stay in businessand that the stock price stabilize at some point.Ideal for me is if the stock price stabilizes long before the market's worries evaporate.Jim
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