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Author: mungofitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 14491  
Subject: FKA: DLTR Date: 1/15/2013 7:09 AM
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Often mentioned here in the past, Dollar Tree looks good to me at $38.

Not screamingly cheap at about 14 times current run-rate earnings, and
not a big fall from its high last June around $57, but I like 'em.
With essentially no debt and steadily rising earnings I think EPS will grow for quite a while.
They've bought back about 4.4% of their shares each year on average in the last 9 years.
All of book/share, cashflow/share, sales/share have risen 16%-17%/year in the last decade.
Net return on assets in the 20-30% range in the last few years.
With luck it's a great business (and simple too!) at a fair price rather than a fair business at a great price.
Target price >=double in <=5 years which means >=15%/year for that period.

Might get cheaper. If so I'll add more.
I did a synthetic long, very rare for me to get that fancy.
(write a put and buy an ITM call: essentially all the risk and reward
but little or no cash up front, though that's not really why I did it)

Jim
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