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Author: temsike Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 79705  
Subject: Re: Thoughts on capitulation Date: 11/24/2008 12:31 PM
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Something not mentioned is what is your time frame to retirement? Those no where near retirement age can buy some dirt cheap stocks.

In mid October I capitulated most of my mutual funds and kept my dividend paying stocks. This gave me enough cash to sleep at night, except for the two automotive bonds I have held since 2000. I may lose my shirt on those.

But I am well into retirement and do not have the years it may take for the market to come back to what it was. Young people do have the years. Keep buying every month, but buy carefully.

I'm 51 with a 51 y/o non-working wife and four children aged 12 to 22. The wife and I WERE going to retire in mid-2009. That idea got mothballed recently by the financial crisis for probably 3 to 9 years depending on two things:

1. Portfolio returns going forward
2. How much I can save per month

Assume 6% real annual returns over the next 10 years. If I save and invest nothing, I get to my target number in 8.5 years.

If I save and invest 40% of our gross monthly income, we can retire in 3.5 years. At 30%, retire in 4 years. Saving and investing 20% of gross monthly income gets us to our target retirement number in 4.8 years.
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