No. of Recommendations: 3
For me personally, the odds are that I will hit. I practice regularly with my pistol and have groupings smaller than an envelope at 25 meters. At one point, I could hit targets 300 meters away with regularity using an AR-15.

I'm trying very hard to be a good guest here (I'm having an intriguing conversation with Casciman), but do you regularly practice with someone shooting at you, with panicked people running around and (in this case) smoke grenades going off?

I'm going to guess that most of those 17-40% accurate police officers also make good, tight groupings when range qualifying. Here's an article from a veteran of action in Kandahar about combat:

If one is aware of the "rules of shooting", you greatly decrease your chances of hitting an innocent person. In this scenario, know your target, what is in front of your target, and what is behind your target.

In this scenario, it sounds like the odds of you firing your weapon are pretty low, since what is in front of and behind your target are teachers and school children?

I guarantee, when the shooter hears gunshots that he didn't create, they will stop and try to find cover. So I don't necessarily even have to hit them to be successful.

Assuming the shooter was planning on coming out of the scenario alive.
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