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Author: MDCigan Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41315  
Subject: Re: Gold - Updated TA Date: 12/11/2012 12:02 PM
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For me, the 200DMA is the line, if that is breached, I will close the position and take the loss. The main reason for the credit spread is reducing the amount of capital locked up.

Still in the credit spread?

Here are my current thoughts. The price action since the 2011 peak and particularly the May low at 1527 is looking very closely like the price action in 2006-2007 after the 2006 peak at 732. In that case, you had a sharp drop to 550 (25% drop). 550ish was tested a few times and then it gradually started working higher with the band of the sideways range getting smaller and smaller until the upside breakout in September 2007 (16 months in duration).

In this case, you had the September 2011 peak at 1924 with the bottom range being 1525-1535 (21% drop). With the recent upside break of the downtrend line off the peak and 1800, the last two pullbacks have been fairly restrained which to me looks like the sideways consolidation range is shrinking towards the upside of the box from 1525 to 1800. And the consolidation is now 16 months in duration.

I'll note that all my chart interpretation is viewed in the context of bullish fundamentals. ZIRP is still official policy for a long time along with the negative real interest rates it brings, and it appears to me that cumulative debt is back on track to start increasing. I'm not a political pundit, but it won't surprise me to see several trillion more in debt accumulation the next 4 years.

I'd note that during the entire secular bull in gold starting in 2001, there hasn't been a single instance of a false breakout after a multi-month consolidation. That isn't a guarantee of anything but it tells me a break and close over 1800 would most likely be very high probability for the beginning of the next upleg to new all-time highs. I've seen some technicians with price targets of 2300-2400 but I'm not sure how they are derived. The tool I am aware of is to use the width of the previous box, so the range of 1500-1800 is 300 points giving you an upside target of 2100.

As I've said for years, and still believe, the final parabolic blast-off still lies ahead. I have no idea on the timing, but I suspect the catalyst event might be some sort of total debt monetization once we reach the acceptance phase that the overall sovereign debt levels are not payable.
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