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Author: junkman02 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35400  
Subject: Re: Price-Risk versus Information-Risk Date: 3/24/2009 11:17 PM
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For me today's price 8.2% ish ('38's,'39's) has removed a good chunk of my margin of safety.

Jack,

That kind of reasoning is exactly what Mamis is saying, as it is exactly what Whitman is saying, as it was exactly the point I was trying to make (in my usual clumsy way), and exactly why shrewd, smart, risk-adverse investors like Wendy were buying GE's debt, not just a couple weeks ago, but a couple months ago.

The trade-off that she (and I) were making was between information-risk and risk-price. The longer/later we waited to gain more info than could already be gathered from what the market was already telling us, the worse the price would be that we'd have to pay to buy GE's debt. I don't remember the exact trade details now, but I picked up some of their somethings of something at enough of a discount to give me a YTM of ~12.6%. Since then, I'm up 7% on my entry price, and when I went shopping this morning, I couldn't get 2/3rd's of that YTM. (So, obviously, I didn't buy.)

Is GE is sure deal? HA, HA, HO, HO, HEE, HEE, FAT CHANCE. But I'd rather be in "early" at discount, than "late" and paying dearly (for what amounts to mostly the same risk to each person).

Charlie
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