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For very long bonds, losses of 10-20% would be quite possible, if interest rates rose by perhaps 1%. In contrast, a short-term bond might only lose 1-2% for the same change in interest rates.


My first thought was that your estimate range was excessive, but if duration can be figured (roughly) as half of average maturity, and duration has a 1:1 correspndence to interest rate changes, and the fund had an average maturity of 20 years, then your 10% loss figure would hold up. But 20% seems a bit excessive.

I know. I know. I'm being lazy here for working off the cuff and not pulling down the formulas and running some actual data.


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