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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 18054  
Subject: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/12/2006 10:30 PM
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About a month ago FORD stock bottomed out at about &6.06
to day the stock closed at $9.06 and traded $9....11
after hours. Fasten your seat belts because the best
is yet to come!

Nopthing Ventured....Nothing Gained!!!!!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird
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Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11125 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 7:53 AM
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"About a month ago FORD stock bottomed out at about &6.06
to day the stock closed at $9.06 and traded $9....11
after hours. Fasten your seat belts because the best
is yet to come!

Nopthing Ventured....Nothing Gained!!!!!"
********************

Phoinix20, I'm sure we all appreciate your good, positive attitude, but without supporting discussion a post like this is just Yahoo-like cheerleading.

I'm sure you have reasons for your belief that Ford stock will continue to rise. How about you share them with us and add value?

Thanks.

Rob

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11126 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 9:18 AM
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"About a month ago FORD stock bottomed out at about &6.06
to day the stock closed at $9.06 and traded $9....11
after hours. Fasten your seat belts because the best
is yet to come!"

Are you shorting oil futures? ;-)
B

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11128 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 3:05 PM
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I'm sure you have reasons for your belief that Ford stock will continue to rise. How about you share them with us and add value?

Thanks.

Rob

Rob, one of my reasons is that I believe in the
intrinsic value of the company. Ford does not only
make cars but also other things. Ford always had
the technology to produce a better car, and Ford is
a very well known brand the world over. What Ford
needed for a long time was a management team with
imagination. With the new CEO, Ford will get that
too. It's a matter of time.

The Latins used to say..... "Dum Spiro Spero"

PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird




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Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11129 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 4:34 PM
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"I'm sure you have reasons for your belief that Ford stock will continue to rise. How about you share them with us and add value?

Thanks."

"Rob, one of my reasons is that I believe in the
intrinsic value of the company."

When current pension, health and debt obligations are fully accounted, I doubt there is *any* intrinsic value left (ie no shareholder equity). I note that pensions and health care obligations are not fully accounted for (new standards have been proposed to address that by the way)....and I'm not sure about the debt.

If, on the other hand, you mean that you believe that Ford's *total* resources....including the ingenuity of it's employees....will pull the Company out of the toilet into the light of a brighter day...we'll see...I certainly can't affirm or deny your belief here with any absolute statements.

"Ford does not only
make cars but also other things."

Well, those other things are trucks.;) Besides trucks and cars, the only other products are *parts* for those trucks and cars. *That's it.* Ford even got rid of the junk yard business and the oil change business. Unless you count Ford Credit...which finances those cars and trucks, but does not finance houses, etc like GMAC does for GM.

"Ford always had
the technology to produce a better car"

Hmmmm....well, without straining at nits...Ford is doing the best it can right now. It will do better next month and better yet next year. Do they have the technology to build a "better car"? Well, yes, everybody can build something better than they do right this minute...everybody working on their next generation vehicles....but they will be available when they are ready. Could Ford deliver a better car than the Focus...today? Yeah, there are a bunch of better cars over at the Aston Martin dealership. My point is that Ford's current Focus (for example) is the best that Ford can do *today* with the given set of constraints (price, size, performance). A "better" version is coming...and it will be as good as it can be...and we'll sell it at a loss.

I would point out that there are *always* constraints....they form the definition of what you want to make. We're *working* on fixing costs so that they are less than prices...

"Ford is
a very well known brand the world over."

Very true. Part of the problem is what it's known for here in the U.S. (and in Europe). Putting that aside, the brand is the most valuable asset....which has been rapidly depreciating. Did you know that fewer than a quarter of vehicle buyers are even *willing* to *consider* a Ford Motor product? That makes it *real* hard to claw our way back!

*********
All Ford shareholders can be pleased with the recent increase in price.

Where will the price go from here? I wish I *knew*. I *suspect* that it will rise some with the accelerated Way Forward announcement...and may rise further when initial sales of the new Edge/MKX come in....but I think the price will tank as upcoming financial figures come out...note that I *didn't* say "profits". :(

My personal plan is to wait and see, but I suspect that I'll sell off 90% of my Ford holdings *after* November, but *before* 4thQ results come in. We'll see. I think we'll see $10, maybe $12....then I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped back into the $6 range for a while before that "brighter day."

And thanks for sharing *your* thinking, PHOINIX20.

Rob


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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11130 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 5:25 PM
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Rob:

My main concern with Ford is the Ford family i.e.
will they allow Mulally to really run the company
and do the things that needs to be done or will be
in his feet and cause things to get worse.

Now speaking of technology...in the late 60s
Ford decided to put a car in Le Mans race, it
was a Ford engine of course with two american
drivers... Phil Hill a well seasoned and well
known Grand Prix driver from Costa Mesa,
California who knew Le Mans track like the back
of his hand and our great Indy driver from Texas
(can't think of his name) who retired a couple
years ago. They ran the race which of course they
won with no hitch. It was a surprising victory
thanks to the engine. It was something that had
never been tried before by an american car company.

What I am trying to say is that the technology
exists it is a question if the Ford family wants/
will let the Mulally do his job.


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11131 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/13/2006 7:20 PM
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"Now speaking of technology..."

Were we? Is Ford having technology problems? NOT as a direct cause of woes IMO.

"in the late 60s Ford decided to put a car in Le Mans race, it was a Ford engine of course with two american drivers... Phil Hill a well seasoned and well known Grand Prix driver from Costa Mesa, California who knew Le Mans track like the back of his hand and our great Indy driver from Texas (can't think of his name)"

<looking up at my related wall poster> Are your thinking of Dan Gurney? Bob Bonurant? in 64 they got 1st in their class with US race proven Cobra Daytonas at Le Mans. Hardly unexpected - the 289 Hi-pos were known to be robust. But you're mentioning Phil Hill - Hill & McLaren were DNF (Did not finish) at Le Mans that 1st year (64). In 65 Phil also was DNF. Though I'm looking at my tribute office poster* I'll admit I did have to look up some specific rankings per class:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_24_Hours_of_Le_Mans
(you can flip through years on the right top)

"They ran the race which of course they won with no hitch. It was a surprising victory thanks to the engine. It was something that had
never been tried before by an american car company."

LOL are you kidding? Never tried before? No hitch? It sure was a hitch - H. Ford II (and a cast of many from Shelby American, AC Cars, Walker racing, Holman & Moody et al.) poured a lot of money and years into such efforts - the decison by Henry was made in 62 to start pushing it. You make it sound like they just threw a 427 side oiler into a chassis one year and won the a race all to their surprise and no years of testing & costly planning. Ditto with trans-am & SCCA events - a lot of engineering, customizing (to shoe horn big FE's), & testing by the standards of the days and not all that different from some of toady's Mustang or GT race projects.

Anyway we digress....Lets take it as a given that Ford race history is fun but what would today's analogy or risk taking be? What motor would Ford be throwing into a car thus solving any real business problems? Let gets real - that supposed surprise GT40 win (or whatever ones in plural) didn't necessarily translate to company saving revenues or problem solving (one could argue the Mustang as a highly demanded great bang for buck offering was much bigger a deal then for it's or other Ford's win on race day effects).

The problem today isn't the lack of an endurance motor or race programs. Clearly the GT's are gorgeous, highly sought after, and highly respected....Mustangs too - no doubt Ford performance is alive and with inflation adjustments more than affordable and it's a blue oval muscle car lovers dream era. Mean while the big company picture is gray.

I hope enough people in places to make changes see the problem today is image and the offerings behind that image that appeal to the Toyota buyers out there. Rob has nailed this in many posts. Is there a big compelling plan to make us relate today's problem to grand racing history wins? I doubt it - we better look for something grounded in the concerns of the average commuter. In the mean time we'll simply have to wait & see how well cutting human resources plays vs it's effects on morale (as also reported by Rob) and how exactly that breaks the free fall of market share. It's a longer road than that of the 1966+ Le Mans.
Cheers,
B

*FWIW have this framed on one wall:
http://www.cobracountry.com/posters/simon/simon-03-PSRR90.html
and this nice Phil Hill tribute over my desk:
http://www.cobracountry.com/posters/simon/simon-02-PSRR91.html
They look super in an engineering office (lots of my customers comment favorably)

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Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11132 of 18054
Subject: Re: FORD LOOKING GREAT! Date: 9/14/2006 7:11 AM
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I believe statements by Bill Ford make it clear that the family is interested in saving the company...and that's a primary reason Mulally was brought in. (Bill also doesn't really want the job load he's been carrying). Mulally will not have issues with the family if he does his job.

With regard to technology, I'm afraid I don't understand your point. Winning Le Mans in the 60's is *totally* irrelevant to today. The technology from that era means nothing and there is no special technology that Ford possesses that will provide a huge advantage.

Every leading car company has certain minor or major technical edges in a variety of fields. Ford has some minor CAE and manufacturing techological edges, but they are nothing that helps the company in the marketplace....those edges just help profits (not that you'd notice these days).

Rob

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