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Author: TMFTwitty Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 18123  
Subject: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/25/2006 3:08 PM
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http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06082518.htm?ref=foolwatch

Ford Roars, GM Stalls
By Rich Smith (TMFDitty)
August 25, 2006

It's August, and you know what that means: It's time to check in with J.D. Power and Associates for the latest stats on the world's leading carmakers.

Twice a year, the McGraw-Hill unit publishes reports on vehicle quality. In the summer, J.D. Power kicks the tires on new cars and rates their makers for "initial quality." A few months later, the research house looks under the hood of used cars and assigns grades for "dependability." The 2006 edition of that latter survey came out earlier this month, and the results are, if not entirely surprising, still worth perusing if you're pondering an investment in this sector. So let's take a look........
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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11036 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/25/2006 6:32 PM
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Let's face it Ford while is losing a bundle still has great intrinsic
value, but besides that the rumor that the company maybe taken private
has legs and why not, as a privately owned has a chance to be run with
more freedom without having to answer to SEC and shareholders.

Latest news, Mr. Rubin, resigned from the FORD board to avoid conflict
of interest, that means that CITICORP., is about to take a big hand on
whatever will take place in the months to come.

Right now I rate the stock a BUY! There is money to be made!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: KennyO Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11040 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/26/2006 6:35 PM
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Right now I rate the stock a BUY! There is money to be made!

I take you mean it's a speculative "buy."

KennyO

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Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11041 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/26/2006 8:14 PM
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Awww, c'mon, Kenny! <Cynical outburst follows>:

There exists in some hearts an overwhelming desire to fly into the flame.

Somehow, to some folks, Ford is the best investment vehicle available.

There are multiple motivations out there:

A) love of an American icon, coupled with a belief that an investment somehow helps the company...

B) belief that an investment career can be based on repeated "filling an inside straight" (I can't fail)

C) belief that "I'm not betting much and I can afford to lose it" (I'd encourage folks to send unwanted money my way...)

D) conviction that they really know this company and it's place in the industry and it's upcoming performance. This group knows or feels that they have found a turnaround. I would like to say that most Ford employees have sold most/all their Ford holdings

E) the clever traders. Folks who believe that they will not only be buying at a low, but will have the luck and discipline to sell at some tbd higher price. Tbd might or not be already guessed at

F) following the herd. Looks like a pretty scrawny herd out there folks.
****************

OK, thanks for enduring that!

Personally, I still own a little bit and I'm hoping to fall in group E and sell after the stock pops upon the announcement of the "Fast Forward" plan in a few weeks. Will there be a pop? I don't know.

On the other hand, we're getting a "Fast Forward" preview on Tuesday, so I figure I'll be able to judge whether it's worth waiting for the pop. Will I be right? Only time will tell....but I suspect that the cuts will be pretty significant. I view it extremely unlikely that I'll be laid off....after all, new product is the foundation of the "comeback" and I think our part of new product development is pretty difficult to replace. ;)

I *may* buy back into Ford in a few years if it looks like this diving plane will miss the mountains instead of digging into them.

Rob

P.S. I'll be making some buys next week: GGP and VLCM. *Much* better than Ford in my opinion....go to MF public REIT board and HG: VLCM boards for details.

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Author: KennyO Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11042 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/26/2006 10:47 PM
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Flying into the flame, indeed!

A) emotional investing ... patriotic, but emotional
B) been to Reno, got the t-shirt, lost the t-shirt in Las Vegas
C) I encourage a bit of speculation with a few percent of the portfolio for many investors (hang on, I'll post my e-mail address; I accept Paypal)
D) can you say "contrarian?" can you say "deep value investment?" can you say "deep doo-doo?" Garrison Keillor said it charmingly: "I believe that sometimes you have to look reality in the face and deny it!"
E) emotional investing, deep value investing, speculation, high hopes ... a little too much Tabasco in that stew for my taste!
F) I've heard rumors of a herd but all I've seen so far has been a dust cloud of epic proportions.

Although I was part of the herd WRT my common shares, I'm still holding my F.PRS with a 6% yield at my cost, 10% yield at the current price. Try to tell me that's not a risk premium! I'm honestly tempted to buy on dips but I'm haunted by the phrase "a better place for the money." I could claim that buying would be a contrarian move but that would be too reminiscent of my return trips to Las Vegas where where my gambling money simply contributes to the hotels paying their light bills.

Lord knows I WANT Ford to survive and thrive and I WANT to buy back into the common stock but for the next year or two, taking that seriously would involve alcohol, drugs and denial. OTOH if the common dips to $7.25 ...

KennyO

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11043 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/27/2006 11:00 AM
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You folks out there can think and believe whatever your heart and mind
desire, but me, I rembember good old Chrysler at.....$4 per share.....!

Nothing Ventured.....Nothing Gained!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: GeezerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11044 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/27/2006 12:13 PM
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"You folks out there can think and believe whatever your heart and mind
desire, but me, I rembember good old Chrysler at.....$4 per share.....!"

There is a long list of auto companies that went out of business and left shareholders holding the bag instead of their shares.

But that's OK. You can choose to make your investments wherever you want, based on hopes....or based on knowledge. It's your dollar....for now. I hope it works out for you....you could get lucky.

As for myself, I'm growing *my* portfolio based on experience, knowledge, analysis and consultation with other knowledgable Fools. It works. Risk is managed, not based on hope or greed or luck.

I'd suggest you subscribe to Hidden Gems. There's a lot there for *everybody* to learn.

Rob


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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11045 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/27/2006 10:51 PM
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"You folks out there can think and believe whatever your heart and mind
desire, but me, I rembember good old Chrysler at.....$4 per share.....!"

Oh yea, well I remember Packard at ....ok, well I'm not that old but to pretend that Chryster and the market sentiments were/are the same as Ford's or apply today would probably be a mistake (if only it were still 1998 when things still at least appeared rosy for ForMoCo).

And as I recall a lot of investors got screwed on the DCX merger from both sides of the pond so lets not gloss over anything with only our favorite memories.


"Nothing Ventured.....Nothing Gained!"

A fool and his money are soon parted......there's a sucker born every minute....etc. Better to take things case by case and frequently revaluate than to cite phrases that without context don't afirm any sense. Good luck,
B

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11052 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/29/2006 11:49 PM
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A fool and his money are soon parted......there's a sucker born every minute....etc. Better to take things case by case and frequently revaluate than to cite phrases that without context don't afirm any sense. Good luck,
B

"This Fool parted with his money a few months back and bought
Ford at $7.25 and again this month at $6.15. Today this stock
is over $8.00 and most likely heading to $9.00. To day I can
say that I am about 30% ahead. Not so bad for a fool"!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11053 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/30/2006 9:53 AM
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No, not bad at all - congratulations. And if it wasn't clear I wasn't calling you a fool (small f) but saying lightheartedly that such phrases (as nothing ventured nothing gained) really doesn't mean much without the nodding to the risk ends (they're there too). There's a lot of longs with long faces and no gains despite venturing (I'm not one of them aside from mutual fund slivers). Again congrats that you're up - lets hope it continues.

This a.m. I heard news calling for Bill F.'s resignation (Boston ABC affiliate)

And yesterday a.m. while getting ready for the day listened to a little of Autoline-Detroit as Tivo'd off Speed Channel. Was coverage of Ford's cuts & concerns and in a diff segment of possible Detroit advantages (over Honda Toyo eta la) of ethanol readiness. Funny cause I always thought the barrier to flex fuel small.....anyway need to listen to rest later.

So there's a real mix of news - none of it makes me want to jump in again with my capital.

On a personal note I may head to the dealership this weekend to see if I'm inspired to replace my trusty but tired 10 year old SUV. If so I'll report my impressions (will visit both Ford & sister Merc dealerships just outside the Boston beltway).
Cheers,
B
(the eternal sloppy typer ;-)

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Author: Aaaashby Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11058 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/31/2006 11:50 AM
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Just for the record, I sold my Jan 2008 options today for about 25% gain. I probably would have hung on to them for a while longer, but I need the cash, and a bird in hand... :-(



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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11060 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 8/31/2006 10:30 PM
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"This Fool parted with his money a few months back and bought
Ford at $7.25 and again this month at $6.15. Today this stock
is over $8.00 and most likely heading to $9.00. To day I can
say that I am about 30% ahead. Not so bad for a fool"!


You're nothing ahead until you sell the stock for a profit.

Posts like this and the dividend cut have convinced me to sell tomorrow. I have a ask in but I'm definitely lowering it now.

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11077 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/5/2006 11:53 PM
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You're nothing ahead until you sell the stock for a profit.

Posts like this and the dividend cut have convinced me to sell tomorrow. I have a ask in but I'm definitely lowering it now.

A very foolish post and a very foolish thing to sell you
stock! As for me now that REAL changes are taking place
I am going to hang on to my shares for a little longer.
That is to above.... $10!

Nothing Ventured Nothing Gained!


PHOINIX20
The Etrnal Bird




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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11094 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/6/2006 10:46 PM
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Luck is not skill. And I would still sell here. Good Luck with your shares.

The real point is...don't book imaginary profits.

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Author: a1wes One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11095 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/7/2006 3:12 AM
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Luck is not skill. And I would still sell here. Good Luck with your shares.

The real point is...don't book imaginary profits.


The point is that all unsold positions are "imaginary" profits or losses. All of your stocks that are up are down right now are all imaginary gains or losses, not just the ones that you think will drop or continue to rise. And until Ford does drop, those who bought at below the current price have a better claim on a profit than you do on their ultimate loss.

I agree with you, the profits don't materialize until the shares are sold. But at the same time, you are assuming that they will ultimately be a loss, which is just as foolish as anyone currently assuming a profit. And, in the end, no matter how smart of an investor you are, the success or failure of a single individual investment is highly dependent upon luck. Yes, a smart investor will in the end have more 'winners' than a dumb investor. But looking at one single investment, the dumb investor is on the same ground as the smart investor. Only over the long run with many stocks does the good investor beat the bad investor.

Basically, what I'm saying is not to discount your statements, but to point out that your claims apply to any and every stock and stock buy, not just to Ford.

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Author: jeffrubinstein Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11096 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/7/2006 4:32 AM
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Hello Folks,

Luck is not skill.

“It's a funny thing, the more I practice the luckier I get”
Arnold Palmer quotes (American Golfer. b.1929)

from -
http://en.thinkexist.com/quotation/it-s_a_funny_thing-the_more_i_practice_the/157266.html

And I would still sell here.

I'm not selling. Might double up as the price is still significantly lower than when I bought ($33 ish v $39) I've seen how much difference a competent, energetic CEO can make to a large corporation in several areas.

The real point is...don't book imaginary profits.

Good Advice.

Regards

Jeff

-- long F-PR from about $39

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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11099 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/7/2006 11:43 AM
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First, Great Post.

But at the same time, you are assuming that they will ultimately be a loss, which is just as foolish as anyone currently assuming a profit.

You right, that's why I'm out and booked my profit.

Foolish Jim

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11105 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/7/2006 4:22 PM
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You right, that's why I'm out and booked my profit.

Foolish Jim

Foolish Jim, you are writing as if the demise of FORD
is a sure thing, but have you not heard that only two
things are certain ie....... death and taxes????

Nothing ventured...Nothing gained!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11109 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/7/2006 11:20 PM
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I never said anything about the demise of Ford!

I'm waiting for a rebuy, that's all.

Value, Fundie, Chartist, Intuitive Foolish Jim

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11112 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/8/2006 11:32 AM
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Then you should be shorting the stock!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird

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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11113 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/8/2006 6:54 PM
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Why?

Foolish Jim

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Author: Philipo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11114 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/9/2006 10:22 AM
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"Why?

Foolish Jim "

Jim haven't you heard? Anyone not bullish on a stock surely must short it - there is no room for anything but extremes
(kidding ;-)
Cheers,
B

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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11115 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/9/2006 3:07 PM
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lol

Cheers Jim

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Author: PHOINIX20 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11117 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/9/2006 10:18 PM
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Why?

Foolish Jim

It is evincing from the tenor of your postings that the
odds of the stock to go down is at least 70% and 30%, to
go up. With these kinds of odds I would expect anyone to
short the stock.

Nothing Ventured...Nothing Gained..!


PHOINIX20
The Eternal Bird


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Author: OblivionX Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 11118 of 18123
Subject: Re: Ford Roars, GM Stalls Date: 9/10/2006 2:44 PM
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With these kinds of odds I would expect anyone to
short the stock.


Erroneous Assumption.

It is evincing from the tenor of your postings that the
odds of the stock to go down


Only in this thread. Like I said I booked my profits, now I'm on the sidelines.

go down is at least 70% and 30%, to go up.

Time will tell, have no idea how you got those percentages thou.

Foolish Jim

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