UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: Milligram46 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 454839  
Subject: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 12:55 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 32
Fifteen months ago Seattle area real estate agents were cooing over how it was still a sellers market here. Real estate prices were going up, and national magazines were pointing to Seattle and Portland as pockets of strength that meant that surely the weaker markets out there would be turning around.

Fifteen months later, Seattle has gone from first, to worst, with Forbes magazine declaring that Seattle is now the hardest market to sell a home in. Worst for Puget Sound, prices have "only" gone down 11% in the last year, and many here are now feeling there is another 30% to 50% to go.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/thebigblog/archives/15043...

...Radar Logic, a New York City-based real estate data and analytics company, today released housing sales transaction numbers for a sampling of homes in 25 of the country's major metropolitan areas. This story is based on these numbers.

Of the cities measured, Philadelphia has had by far the steepest increase in home sales, with transactions more than doubling from the same time the previous year. Seattle marks the other end of the sales spectrum, having seen its transaction numbers drop by 43.7% from the previous year...


Additionally you have Safeco Insurance inhaled by Liberty Mutual - white collar jobs gone. Wamu meltdown - white collar jobs gone. Starbucks in reverse - white collar jobs gone. Amazon, REI, and Nordstrom, all retailers, with Amazon best prepared to weather a storm lacking the overhead of brick and mortar, and also running a fiscally lean operation. Now you've got Microsoft saying there is a "review of hiring," here, and lets toss in what is clearly going to be a long term Boeing strike. Seattle is losing tens of thousands of high paying skilled labor or white collar jobs all at the same time, and at a time when the market is overbuilt and as someone living here can tell you -- still building!

I was driving yesterday and saw a sign for a local condo development (prices have dropped here to as low as $150K) offering - 0% down and teaser rate financing, to say I was gobsmacked is an understatement.

Last night when this story ran on the local news they showed this couple trying to sell their Queen Anne home for $529K, they haven't had a single person even come through the house and its been on the market for seven weeks. The sad reality for them, and thousands like them, is their home is probably only worth 1/2 what they are asking - reality is just three or so years away. The question is, what will they do when they are upside down on the mortgage, and more like them, and the $700 billion bailout is long gone.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: Iaato Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257755 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 1:12 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Additionally you have Safeco Insurance inhaled by Liberty Mutual - white collar jobs gone. Wamu meltdown - white collar jobs gone. Starbucks in reverse - white collar jobs gone. Amazon, REI, and Nordstrom, all retailers, with Amazon best prepared to weather a storm lacking the overhead of brick and mortar, and also running a fiscally lean operation. Now you've got Microsoft saying there is a "review of hiring," here, and lets toss in what is clearly going to be a long term Boeing strike. Seattle is losing tens of thousands of high paying skilled labor or white collar jobs all at the same time, and at a time when the market is overbuilt and as someone living here can tell you -- still building!

Those feedback loops are evil, Mg. Amazon will get theirs too; it just might take a little longer. We bail out all of the financial entities at the top by printing money, the dollar collapses, the price of oil goes waaayyy up, and Amazon's shipping business model gets hit, too. There's no place to hide in this mess, because it's all connected.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Milligram46 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257780 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 4:12 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
True, the one thing REI has going for it is its a co-op and their customers are fiercely loyal, but if they're broke, they're broke, and quality outdoor gear costs big bucks.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: KodiakBear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257782 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 4:24 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
"Amazon will get theirs too; it just might take a little longer."

As last man standing, Amazon is the ultimate winner.
The only thing which could crush them is debt. I think they're OK on that front.

KB

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Milligram46 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257786 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 4:37 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
I agree KB. Amazon runs lean and mean, admittedly if they get whacked with shipping and fuel surcharges it starts to eat into the model, but even brick and mortar have the same issue, the goods that show up from the DC to the stores doesn't walk there on its own. Amazon is infamous for running lean and mean, I believe the Bezos "door desk" is on display at their HQ as a reminder to be frugal. My understanding is their corporate HQ is a misreable place to work in general because of the lean and mean model.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Dwdonhoff Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257810 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 7:37 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
Hi Milli,

Amazon is infamous for running lean and mean, I believe the Bezos "door desk" is on display at their HQ as a reminder to be frugal. My understanding is their corporate HQ is a misreable place to work in general because of the lean and mean model.

I guess it being a "miserable place to work" is a matter of taste, and preference for culture. One of my clients, who has become a good friend, and who is a well-respected analyst (and fellow Fool... you'd instantly know the Fool-name,) is one report below Bezos in a side-acquired firm... and he's loving it.

As a principal of a firm also in an industrial "survival mode"... while watching my competitors & conspirators dropping like flies, left & right... I can definitely look at our own "lean & mean model" and say it's a SIGNIFICANT reason our little boutique firm remains standing. (Literally, I also had desks made out of doors up to just 4-5 years ago... and had I heard of the Amazon culture I might have been encouraged to avoid "going legit" myself and keeping our team in less costly digs... with more social perks.)

I've heard no complaints from Amazon insiders myself. Microsoft, on the other hand, provides a Cadillac "first-class" employee environment that is to be envied... yet I know more & more itchy & unhappy 'Softies. Up until a year ago or so, I would say about 20% of the 'Softies I knew were actually moonlighting in real estate (of all things.)

Fortunately for the local economy, both are still healthy enough to remain quite stable... but the asset cycle itself is inescapable (especially with the ongoing and extended collapse of the credit markets.)

Cheers,
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257821 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 8:43 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Fifteen months later, Seattle has gone from first, to worst, with Forbes magazine declaring that Seattle is now the hardest market to sell a home in. Worst for Puget Sound, prices have "only" gone down 11% in the last year, and many here are now feeling there is another 30% to 50% to go.

My *first* indication that some markets would see 50% decline in house purchase price relative to rent, came out of a quick analysis of the Seattle market. (Because it's the one I'm most familiar with.)


I wish we had a decent search capability so I could pin down when that was. It feels like about two years ago, but I am not so sure of that.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: PolymerMom Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 257826 of 454839
Subject: Re: From First To Worst In 15 Months Date: 10/5/2008 9:34 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
MG,

REI will do OK. They do have brick & mortar stores, but their website is A-1. There may be some employment cutbacks, but it's a cooperative. I've been a member since the early 70's and look forward to my 8-10% dividends on purchases.

Mom

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement