UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (13) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1947752  
Subject: Galactic irony Date: 11/15/2012 10:18 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 75
In an entry titled "Austerity doesn't work", MadCap subtitles the post The Hunt for Bias-Confirming Data (his bold)

An for examples of his "the title is backwards to trip you up" he offers the following examples of how "austerity" is paying off for those governments using it:

Lithuania. Latvia. and Estonia. All quite typical large market economies, obviously.

And a few kind words about Canada, which, of course, didn't melt down thanks to its highly regulated banking system.

In the "un-bias-confirmed data", MC manages to leave out Spain, definitely in the "austerity" camp, not guilty of profligate spending or reckless government, but thanks to contractionary policies currently sporting unemployment figures of 25% (50% among youth.)

No mention of England, now in a double dip recession after following the advice to hold back government spending in a time of economic stress. No word about France or Italy, not a mention of Greece, of course, poster child for slashing spending - followed by a collapse of tax receipts - requiring more slashing of spending, followed by even fewer tax receipts...

Bias confirmed data indeed. Lithuania. Latvia. Estonia. Ho ho ho.

Good show.
Print the post Back To Top
Author: markand4504 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837262 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/15/2012 10:52 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
No word about France or Italy, not a mention of Greece, of course, poster child for slashing spending
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm sorry, did you just refer to Greece as the poster child of slashing spending? Why do you think other Eurozone countries were opposed to bailing out Greece? Because they had just slashed way too much spending and were overly solvent?

http://livingingreece.gr/2010/05/02/greece-new-austerity-mea...

Above is a link to a list of the draconian measures.

One example:

"Increase VAT by 10%" (thats a tax)

Another example:

"Pensions frozen through 2013" (wow so they didn't increase them)

AND THE MOST DRASTIC OF ALL

"No Chrismas bonuses for pensioners collecting over $3800/mo"

If they are the "poster child for slashing spending" then you are the poster child for sharp analysis.

Mark

Print the post Back To Top
Author: putnid Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837263 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/15/2012 10:52 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 45
I spent last spring in Lithuania and will be returning in 2013. The country is struggling. Unemployment is running about 13 percent. While I was last there, the police department in Vilnius (the capital) announced that 1/3 of the police car fleet would be idled because the department could not pay for fuel.

The "brain drain" has been immense. It's been estimated that approximately 25% of Lithuania's college graduates have left the country because they could not find work. Many arrived in the US (illegally).

Smaller towns have been left bereft of young people. As a consequence, the Lithuanian Parliament is re-considering a law that would grant automatic citizenship to the children of all ex-pats who fled during/after WWII.

The average pension in Lithuania is too small to even cover basic utilities, let alone rent and food.

Madcap has been huddling around a campfire way too long, inhaling brain-damaging, toxic wood fumes.

Life in Lithuania is hard. Damn hard.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: 5xSiKOChamp Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837284 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 7:31 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
No mention of England, now in a double dip recession after following the advice to hold back government spending in a time of economic stress.

The intial figures for GDP in England are always rushed out (why?) and then revised. Usually there are revisions for 3 years.

So far the double dip has been revised down (or is that up?) to the point that the dip is becoming barely a shadow. I fully expect that if you look back in 3 years time you will see no dip at all.

The problem with England is that the previous Govt borrowed like crazy during a boom so we entered recession with high debt. There simply is no more money to spend.

As one poster put it on here a while back "Do you pump out the sh!t or raise the ceiling?"

Hopefully we are pumping.

not a mention of Greece, of course, poster child for slashing spending - followed by a collapse of tax receipts - requiring more slashing of spending, followed by even fewer tax receipts...

The problem with Greece is that they don't collect tax! Not to mention stupid socialist policies of public sector pensions being 100% of salary and being able to retire at 50. Now the Govt is addressing these issues the people are rioting.

One wonders how the people thought these socialist policies were funded?

Print the post Back To Top
Author: markand4504 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837324 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 10:54 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
No mention of England, now in a double dip recession after following the advice to hold back government spending in a time of economic stress. No word about France or Italy, not a mention of Greece, of course, poster child for slashing spending - followed by a collapse of tax receipts - requiring more slashing of spending, followed by even fewer tax receipts...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm sorry I am going to have to re-post my original response. What you said was so completely idiotic and outside the constraints of reality it would be unseemly to just let it slide.

You referred to Greece, yes Greece, as the "poster child for slashing spending".

I do not think you are ignorant. I do not think you are lying. I think you are insane. Facts are readily available for this case study in socialsim. BELOW is a link to a comprehensive list of ALL austerity measures Greece has taken:

http://livingingreece.gr/2010/05/02/greece-new-austerity-mea...

SO LETS TAKE A LOOK AT ALL THIS CRAZY SLASHING AND SPENDING THAT YOU CLAIM HAS CAUSED GREECE'S FINANCIAL WOES.

One example:

"Increase VAT by 10%" (that's a tax)

Another example:

"Pensions frozen through 2013" (wow so they didn't increase them)

Here's a good one:

"Increase retirement age according to life expectancy, starting 2020" (OOOOUUCH!! THESE CUTS ARE MURDER)

AND THE MOST DRASTIC OF ALL

"No Chrismas bonuses for pensioners collecting over $3800/mo"

If they are the "poster child for slashing spending" then you are the poster child for sharp analysis.

I won't rule out that you may be a totally ignorant brainwashed socialist, but really I think you are just crazy and unstable. Given the abundance of evidence it is impossible for a mentally anchored person to refer to Greece as the "poster child of slashing spending"

Mark

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: saunafool Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837326 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 10:57 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
You left out Ireland.

In the end, there are two separate problems in the EU. The first is the Euro. The reason it is so difficult for Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Greece to actually reduce spending is that every time they make a cut, the economy gets worse and interest rates on their bonds go up.

Making matters worse, the ECB still thinks their #1 job is to fight inflation because they think Europe will turn into the Weimar Republic if they were to institute ZIRP. So, the ECB central bank rate remains higher than the U.S., even though the economy is clearly weaker.

Contrast that to the U.S., U.K., or Japan who control their own currencies. When the economies weakened, they cut interest rates to zero and borrowing costs went very low. Obviously (especially in the case of Japan) there are problems beyond what low interest rates will solve.

However, the point is that in Spain and Italy where they are clearly experiencing deflation, interest rates are running at 5-7%, not 1-2% like the U.S.

So, Spain cuts government jobs and wages--actual spending on government. The unemployment rate goes up, triggering an increase in interest rates. Now, interest payments on the debt go up, revenues to the government shrink, and the deficit gets larger.

It's been going on for 4 years now. The new ECB bailout fund seems to have helped a bit, but the EU needs to seriously reform the Euro to increase liquidity in the weak economies or they will never escape the deflationary spiral.

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: markand4504 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837331 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 11:05 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
Contrast that to the U.S., U.K., or Japan who control their own currencies
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Have you heard of the Euro?

Mark

Print the post Back To Top
Author: markand4504 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837344 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 11:26 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
So, Spain cuts government jobs and wages--actual spending on government. The unemployment rate goes up, triggering an increase in interest rates.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
You are not paying attention. They HAVE NOT cut government jobs and wages.

Unless you count:
"Raising retirement age according to life expectancy starting in 2020"
and
"No Christmas bonus for pensioners earning over $3800/mo

Interest rates are high because people don't want to loan them money because they have not made any significant cuts.

You act as if they had full employment and a budget surplus and then they just started slashing government and it all fell apart. Ridiculous. They absolutely have not made significant cuts (which is clear if you take time to look at the 'austerity measures' actually implemented)

Feel free to provide evidence of the 'deep cuts' in government that you think started this vicious cycle

Mark

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837436 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 1:43 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 36
You referred to Greece, yes Greece, as the "poster child for slashing spending".
I do not think you are ignorant. I do not think you are lying. I think you are insane.


OK. From CafeHayek:

Greece spending, 2009, 2010, 2011: 125, 114, 108. I believe a reduction of 20% is pretty unprecedented.

Spain spending: 2009, 2010, 2011: 485, 480, 468. Ditto, although the reduction is more modest.
http://cafehayek.com/2012/05/the-slashed-spending-of-europea...

You left out Ireland.

Yes, I also left out Portugal. Just didn't think to include them at that moment.

HEY! Want to see a picture of how it's all working?

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/29...

That terrible socialist Obama! The programs followed by Japan (slipping back into recession?), the Euro area (ditto), and Britain (just coming out of a second recession) look oh so much better, don't you think?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/11/long-slu...

One thing you might notice about the US: steady progress. Slower than the loudmouth Right would like, but then their proposals have done exactly zero when implemented elsewhere. Republicans have been hammering on the deficit for four years, even as the economy has improved, and their prescription has failed everywhere else. How can this be? Does evidence not matter?

Estonia and Latvia. I'm still laughing.

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: markand4504 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837450 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 2:28 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
OK. From CafeHayek:

Greece spending, 2009, 2010, 2011: 125, 114, 108. I believe a reduction of 20% is pretty unprecedented.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
OK. From National Statistical Service of Greece.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-spending

See how spending in 2009 is an outlier and how the 'reductions' you touted were just a reversion to normal levels? No wonder you cited 2009 as your starting point.

Mark

Print the post Back To Top
Author: FoolishVintner Two stars, 250 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837581 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 6:03 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
The problem with England is that the previous Govt borrowed like crazy during a boom so we entered recession with high debt.

Sound familiar?

Oh wait, I'm not supposed to blame Bush for what happened under Bush.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: putnid Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837670 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/16/2012 9:36 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
Estonia and Latvia. I'm still laughing. - Goofyhoofy

Given that you're one of my favorite Fools, I appreciate that you took my earlier comment to heart. Here's the thing: I focused on Lithuania because it's a country I know well. I didn't mention Latvia or Estonia because...well...I'm a lazy git. I'll be visiting Latvia in 2013, too. The economic situation there is pretty much the same as Lithuania's plight. Latvians are seriously struggling, too.

I had previously commented on Estonia's economic situation in a thread that I can no longer find (given the Fool's limited search capabilities). In short, Estonia has had a rough time of it, too. Estonia, however, is different in the sense that it's a really small country with strong ties to Scandinavia. Early on, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Estonia welcomed its ex-pats (and their money) with open arms. That influx of intellectual vigor and hard dollars, coupled with a robust tourist rade and economic ties to Finland, leavened Estonia's plight considerably. Even so, Estonia continues to struggle.

It ain't easy transitioning from a totalitarian communist state to something akin to free market capitalism.

The bottom line? MadCap's reference to these three Baltic States as sterling examples of the salutary effects of "austerity" are completely off-base with little relevance to the challenges faced within the Eurozone and anywhere else.

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: saunafool Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 1837709 of 1947752
Subject: Re: Galactic irony Date: 11/17/2012 3:52 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Do you realize that Spain does not control the Euro?

The U.K. controls their currency, Spain does not.

If anyone controls the Euro it is Germany. They are still obsessed with inflation.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (13) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement