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Author: towinner Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3296  
Subject: GCE Date: 2/19/2007 1:04 PM
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Does anyone have a view on Grand Cache Coal? The stock got ahead of itself last year, but it seems cheap at $0.67.
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Author: fakena Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3018 of 3296
Subject: Re: GCE Date: 2/21/2007 4:05 PM
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Just went over the last four quarters news releases, and things don't look as bad as that drop in share price from $16 two years ago to what, $0.57 today. I'll have to take some time to look over the info from back then. I haven't come across any type of coal reserves info yet. About how many years of production can they sustain at 1 to 2 million tonnes?

Wonder why they had to make sales way over to the east, didn't seem to be demand driven. It does seem to be a valid candid to become a ten bagger fast. Interesting.

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Author: fakena Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3020 of 3296
Subject: Re: GCE Date: 2/21/2007 4:51 PM
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Here's a biy of info on market price of met coal from:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html

My guess it looks like prices subsided with price of oil dropping and I'd expect it to have probably actually rebounded with the last rally in oil markets.


Accounts of actual individual transactions are relatively few in October and November as the first quarter, January through March, is the period traditionally when most iron and steel producers contract for met coal for the next year or two. Reports that have been seen are mixed for recent met coal price agreements. Jim Walter Resources, reporting on its third quarter sales of Alabama met coal, sold 1.6 MMst of met coal at an average price of $105.48 per short ton, priced at the mine area. That volume is a substantial increase over the 0.7 MMst it sold in 3Q2005, when the coal fetched $108.28 per short ton (Platts Coal Outlook, November 13, p 8.) Third quarter 2006 sales figures for metallurgical coal released by Alberta-based Grand Cache Coal cited 0.3 MM tonnes metric sold for an average $C103, or about $US106 per short ton at the mine (Platts Coal Outlook, November 20, p 9). On the other hand, CRU Monitor, which advises commodity dealers, buyers, and investors, reported in November that U.S. met coal producers that have concluded supply agreements for 2007 purchased premium high–volatile met coal for $69 to $73 per short ton, mid-volatile met coal for about $80 per short ton, and low-volatile met coal for $74 to $82 per short ton (CRU Monitor, Steelmaking Raw Materials, November 2006, p 3).




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Author: fakena Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3021 of 3296
Subject: Re: GCE Date: 2/21/2007 4:59 PM
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sold for an average $C103, or about $US106

I'd like to trade my Canadian money with the guy giving me that rate.

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Author: towinner Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3026 of 3296
Subject: Re: GCE Date: 2/22/2007 1:46 PM
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thanks for your response. I have a tiny position and am keeping my eye on this one.

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Author: fakena Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 3030 of 3296
Subject: Re: GCE Date: 2/23/2007 8:46 AM
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I've gone through all MD&A's from inception to now. Looks like if they get every thing going right they shouldn't have a problem of earning $0.20 - $0.50 share for ten years, but so far it looks like they have a bit of problems with just about everything; sales, rail service, mining equipment purchases, production plans, processing plant...well, just about everything. but it seems that the present low strip ratio for surface mining should now produce lower costs of coal produced and I'd think they should stay profitable. But they are beginning to operate this themselves now, so I'd expect a bit more problems in that respect.

Its hard for them to get committed buyers I'd think considering they can't ensure delivery date to westshore terminal because of the rail service. I'm still wondering about the reason for cancellation on the mining shovel. Also wondering about the production rate plan going from about 2 million tonnes per year to 4 million tonnes at a time they were having trouble producing 1 million tonne.

Any idea if they can replace reserves mined within their present lease areas and about what it would cost them to get a measured and indicated tonne approximately to that certainty? I think I'll do some more digging, crunching, and considering.

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