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Author: MDCigan Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41315  
Subject: Gold - Intermediate-term bottom? Date: 1/15/2013 11:33 PM
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New thread per the request :)

Anyways, quick update as I see it. On 1/4/13, gold made a low of 1626, and the candlestick that day actually had a long tail which suggests to my buying pressure that drove it back up that day. I think there is a reasonable probability that was the bottom for gold for two reasons, seasonality and sentiment.

1. Seasonality - In each of the past 3 years, gold has made its intermediate-term bottom roughly in the Dec to Feb timeframe.

12/29/11 - 1523.9
1/28/11 - 1309.1
2/5/10 - 1044.50

2. Sentiment - Hulbert's gold sentiment is at a bearish extreme which has marked other price bottoms:

http://biiwii.com/wordpress/2013/01/11/gold-bears-out-of-the...

http://biiwii.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/hulbe...

Lastly, the short-term downtrend drawn off the 1755 top was broken to the upside with today's action. In my view, the most constructive thing now would be for slow upmove to 1800 unlike the steepness of the last move, and then hopefully a decisive upside breakout from there.
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