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Excellent post. You hit all the key reasons why it is hard to predict what the market for this drug will be. Until phase III trials are completed and we get some sense for how it stacks up against competing therapies it becomes anyones guess. The 30,000 potential new customers per year are just that, potential. That would be my upper limit for sales. The lower limit conservatively (if the drug is actually efficacious) may be only 5 to 10% of that if its only indicated for metastatic disease unresponsive to other measures. Meanwhile there is still Epogen to keep the company going.

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