No. of Recommendations: 16
Great discussion Bob and Saul. Reading this discussion too really made me think. I currently hold INFN but not nearly as much as I once had.

I know it sounds like all things are heading south for Infinera, but I have to side with Bob on after following the company for as long as we both have. They really did get themselves into bind having not progressed fast enough in tangential markets (Metro is one, and Software-based control, e.g. SDN is arguably other). They thought Long Haul would get them through and post strong enough revenues while they ramped up the other areas (including DCI which they *have* ramped up nicely). Unfortunately a perfect storm was created where their long haul business dried up almost over night.

Today we're treated to some additional insight on why that happened. Two of Infinera's *largest* customers are about to become one CenturyLink and Level 3 - a tier 1 and an enterprise wholesaler.

If these M&A talks have been going on for a while I think we have some additional light shed on what else contributed to their perfect storm. While both companies share a common infrastructure (Infinera's) it is likely both paused their spending plans while talks were proceeding. Of course Infinera could say nothing about these developments even if they knew.

Full article linked below on the merger linked below.

http://ir.centurylink.com/file.aspx?IID=4057179&FID=3646...

Some highlights and of particular note:

- New Company will be the Second Largest Domestic Communications Provider Serving Global Enterprise Customers
- Combined Company Will Deliver Comprehensive Services and Solutions Over an Owned Network that Connects More Than 350 Metropolitan Areas with Approximately 75,000 On-Net Buildings
- Transaction Valued at Approximately $34 Billion
- Expect to Achieve $975 Million in Annual Run-Rate Cash Synergies that will Enhance Ability to Invest in Advanced Networks
- Transaction Expected to be Accretive to Free Cash Flow in First Year Following Close and Significantly Accretive on an Annual Run-Rate Basis

Best,
--Kevin
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