great thread for friday! thought i would peak in here before the weekend. i will be emailing you soon Charlie when i have something profound to discuss with you. actually looking into a way to hedge my long corp positions and have a few decent options.in reponse to your elaborate table creation; keep in mind, in my whining example of rambus, i actually put capital at risk and put the trade on. big difference between paper trading or just talking about something.the real kicker is that in life, your fate or lack there of, can be fulfilled by merely in matter of a moment or two and how you take advantage of an opportunity. i will amplify.i had a rough time trading equities in 1999 when i started out. i just was baffled by the price action of the tech stocks in those days. made no sense; how people could predict future earnings in a company, where there were none in the present and yet the stock was trading at $500+ per share, like Commerce One and Ariba Networks.but for months i watched and watched and watched. finally jumped in on an IPO called juniper networks. the price action swings of $30+ intraday was just was too much to deal with, so i closed out for a small gain. only later to watch it go up to $300+, split 3-1, double again, split and double again. over the course of the next couple years, i put on thousands of trades with a whole variety of time frames, whether it be micro minute, daily, weekly, EOD, etc. i literally cut everyone out of my world. trading was my everything. this is where i learned the craft, but actually did not make that much money when all was said and done.so fast forward for that "moment". someone i knew and respected who as a computer web master told me about this new search engine that was going to change the world. it was google. i started using google in late 1998 i believe it was. i becmase obsessed and utterly fascinated with their algo search funcation capacities and the fact that originally they had gone to yahoo to sell it to them for a pittance. yahoo declined and yet years later google was on the verge of going public and now eating their lunch. so up to that moment in time, all of the trades i had done; all of the digressing of why did i not discover the capital markets years earlier. because surely i would have bought those yahoo and aol ipo's, etc. and things would be different.........well the day finally came that i had been waiting for a very long time. i took the rest of the week off and sat in front of my computer the whole day. this was that "moment." it was a beautiful hot summer day i can remember like yesterday. i ended up spending the entire day watching the trading debut of google. i wanted to make sure the price action was stable and nothing crazy happened. it looked great to me. so the very next day at the market open, i purchased 1500 shares of goog for $102.72 per share. and from there, i promised myself for every 25 point decline or increase i would add another 100 shares. when all was said and done i ended up riding this position until for about three years until 2007. on october 8th, my birthday, goog had just broke the $600 mark. i dumped my entire position and ended up going into money market/CD's. i can tell you unequivocally that single trade changed everything. i would not be where i am today if it was not for that one trade. i realize you can not catch every fish. and everyone has their own degree or system when it comes to risk management. grinding it out is a very noble and extremely difficult task. not many have the patience and discipline to do it. so i commend you for that. but sometimes life boils down to just a moment or two and the kicker is, it can go either way. you never really know for certain until its too late; whether its good or bad.
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