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Author: TMFPixy Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75383  
Subject: Re: What Will Year 2000 Bring? Date: 12/11/1999 11:59 AM
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Greetings, SureToo, and welcome. You wrote:

<<I would like opinions of knowledgeable retirees who can unemotionally (hopefully) look at market indicators (things like large funds and companies' accumulation/distribution of stocks) and judge whether or not the market is heading into a "bear" situation.

I read in Investor's Business Daily an article saying something about watching whether the Dow 30 was being dumped or bought. They rate it A through D or E -- A is best (a lot of buying), D or E is worst (lots of selling). The more selling, the more chance of a bear market.

Apparently mutual funds and large companies own 80-some percent of the whole market, so therefore if they start "dumping" they actually bring on the bear market. Does anyone know what I'm trying to say? Got any ideas? Also, where can I find information? I've got DailyGraphs for a month.>>


It's sounds as if you're trying to time the market so you can get out of stocks at a peak, and then buy back into them when they hit a low. Unfortunately, timing does not work with any degree of consistency for pros or amateurs alike. No one knows when a market has peaked, and no one knows when it has bottomed out. And when it moves, it normally does so in spurts in either direction with extreme rapidity. Therefore, if you are concerned with a potential bear market (and one will absolutely, positively occur again someday), then you should do what most Fools do. Do not invest money you know you will need for living expenses in the next three to five years in the stock market. Why? Because for over 50 years no bear market has lasted more than about five years, and they averaged about 14 months in length to recover to their previous high. From there, they went on to newer highs. Thus, you keep money you need in cash so you don't have to sell into a declining market. The rest can continue to grow with the market. It took me a long time to learn a very simple concept, and that is:
There is never a right time to be in the market, only a wrong time to be out of it.

Just one Fool's idea and opinion FWIW.

Regards..Pixy
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