>Fellow REs - don't you think the market is taking account of Harry Dent - maybe earlier? It's not like he's nobody. Lots of people read his stuff, so I don't think I'd wait until 2004. On the other hand, the baby boomlet ought to be coming along just nicely about then. So maybe between people doing stuff early because they believe Harry Dent and baby boomlets becoming concerned about their own retirement, - well - maybe nothing big will happen.>I too have read Dent's book as well as several others. I think all of us RE people owe it to ourselves to hear what others are saying about the long term trends. His scenario is plausible, but as Dent himself says (along with many on this board) is subject to change. No scenario can predict the effect that unknown changes will have on things in either direction. Ten years ago I never would have predicted that I would be a RE person before the year 2000. I never would have predicted just how big of an influence the internet would be in my financial life. The key to me is picking up on the trends early enough to benefit from them by maximizing potential gains or reducing possible losses. 401k's are a perfect example. They are a huge element of successful long term RE planning. Yet I worked with people who were afraid to participate when we had a 67% match. They said it was "too risky". If you put 6% in, the company put in 4%. You got a tax reduction of about 2%, plus 4% in free money (should have been a no brainer, but we only had 60% sign up). This was during a time when the non-participants were getting 2-3% raises each year. Needless to say none of those people were on the RE path. Even though the future is unknown, you can greatly improve your financial situation by being open to change. I have always been a firm LTBH investor and it served me well enough to RE. By having more time to do my research in the last year, I have been able to take advantage of some short term opportunities. I have had some good gains employing that strategy this year. It is actually some of my LT holdings that are putting me in the red for the year. I find the education that I have gotten from this board has been more useful than any of the formal education I have had in the past. When someone comes out with a new book on the future of the markets, we all benefit from the discussions on this board. I think it is the best financial board on the internet, with no others even close.BRG
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