>> I think what we are going to see here is that no one believes there is only one way to invest. And I for one am open to hearing about many ideas. That's why I'm here. I learn so much just from reading these boards. I think the thread lately has gotten a bit personal, and I don't think that is necessary. <<

I agree. I think people can be successful timing the market. On average I don't think they beat the market...but I'm willing to concede that some people can. That doesn't make people who don't "idiots."

Successful market-timing, such as it is, takes not only the knowledge and information but also the emotional temperament to stick with the discipline, or the signals, or whatever, and not allow the twin emotions of fear and greed derail your strategy.

This is why I feel most people can't (and shouldn't) be active traders going in and out of stocks. Not because they're stupid, but because many people overestimate their ability to keep emotion out of investing, and I'm not convinced the average investor has such a temperament.

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