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Author: BrianMotleyFool One star, 50 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 65858  
Subject: Re: NPI challenge 2011 Date: 12/26/2010 6:59 PM
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>> Pick one or two entries. Entries accepted until midnight Friday Jan 7, 2011. <<

Denny - thanks for running the NPI challenge.

My picks: FORM and FMD

I say thank you for NPI specifically because it gives me a chance to think about stocks in ways that I normally do not. I am typically a value person - nothing is better than a boring insurance company trading at 0.7 book value or a bank stock with a strong loan book taken to the cleaners by a sector downdraft.

So NPI gives me a chance to think about quite a few interesting growth stocks. My picks this year focus on turnarounds. High risk, but a good chance to show some gains. I thought about a bunch of other neat possibilities, though:
JOBS: just can't get past the valuation of this one, no matter the growth potential.
ACAS: interesting turnaround, and I expect them to reinstate a divvy in 2011. But probably no more than a chance for a double.
DNDN: my old standby - a great company with interesting growth potential. I expect big things in 2011, but based on current valuation, they can probably no more than double in 2011.
INFN: worried about Huawei competition. Also, do not expect 100 gb revs until 2012.
ABAT: nothing bad to say about the company, which is doing a great job in a growing market, but I am concerned about margins compressing in a commodity type business. Corvus energy would be another possible pick if they ever go public.
CLNE: a possibility based on my belief that natgas will start taking more of the transportation fuel market. But this transition will be slow over several years, so I expect consistent 30% gains, rather than a big 2011.
MAKO and MNTA: Both great companies with real new paradigm tech and good picks for NPI. Definite possibilities for speculative positions in my actual portfolio. But not good for me for NPI challenge, simply because too many others have picked. What's the point of a challange if there is no differentiation between participants?

Anyway, Happy New Year to all, and best to our NPI portfolio in 2011.

Brian
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