UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: orangeblood Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 74759  
Subject: Re: The Anti-Motley Fool viewpoint Date: 2/17/1998 8:25 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
>>><< And BTW, in a post to Pixy you said the Dog theories rely on a strong economy and
cherry-picking the best stocks... but the periods I've given you above take into account both weak
and strong economies, and there is a long enough time horizon there to negate any "luck factor" in
picking good stocks. >>

Are you serious? The US economy hasn't been strong in the 20th century?<<<<<<

Huh? I said it has been through strong and weak cycles. Does the Great Depression mean anything to you?

The Dow theories have been backtested through all of that also.

>>>Let me assure you that if you followed a DOGS strategy in the Zambia your average returns would have been quite low.<<<

The Dow theories are unique to the U.S. market. Others have explained why on this board, I won't go into that. The theories *may* work in other markets, but too many factors are different.

>>>>Not to get on my philosophy of science soapbox… but this is exactly what has led so many people astray on environmental issues. The fact that there has been a temperature rise over the last so many years does not prove that the temperature rise is man made. Unfortunately, so many scientifically illiterate people have been duped into believing this claim, I have more or less given up hope. As long as they believe that correlation proves the case, regardless of establishing a causal relationship, they are impervious to reason.<<<<


First, many scientifically literate people also believe this. (There is valid reasoning on both sides of this argument.) Second, absolutely no one, to my knowledge, assumes the temp rise to be man-made *solely* because there has been a temp rise. They believe it because there are factors to support the theory. Same with the Dow theory. The reasons why it might work are outlined on this web site and in the Gardner's books. If you were able to outline why you don't think their reasoning is valid, I would respect that and agree to disagree. But thus far you have not refuted a single one of the reasons behind the Dow theory, you've only said they don't exist.


orangeblood
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

The Retire Early Home Page
Discussion on accelerating retirement day.
2013 Feste Award Voting Begins!
Who will win the 2013 Feste Award? Vote now for the Fool that most exemplifies the Fool Community mission of Learning Together!
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Post of the Day:
Tax Strategies

TMFPMarti-Feeling Good
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement