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Author: NoLoadFund Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 80  
Subject: Re: DIA and SPY Date: 7/8/2001 3:08 PM
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>>Well, on a monthly log chart, the 30 period line has flattened out.
>>Combined with the breaking down through the long-term trendline, I
>>think that means that the trend has changed. I guess what remains to
>>be seen is whether this will be a short-term consolidation (like
>>1994), a long-term consolidation (like the 70's), or just the start
>>of further breakdown. I guess we have to watch what it does at the
>>150-day EMA and what it does at the horizontal support in the 1200,
>>1100, and 975 areas.

I AM VERY CONCERNED, folks. The market movement is like fractals, you will find patterns within patterns ... and as you scope out, you can more readily identify larger patterns and trends. And what chekat posted is right on the money.

There is a leveling off of the 150 bar moving average for all the major indexes if you set bar=9 days and zoom=1. This is a Weinstein top over a larger chunk of time. It is very pronounced on the SP-500. And it is beginning to take shape on the DJIA. The Naz seems to be the last one to have discovered it.

I've heard some people predict that we are in for a very long bear market. Yes, we are seeing uptrends on a small scale - but they seem to be breaking down. And this larger trend of a Weinstein market top really sticks out. You can even detect a run-up between jan-1999 to dec-2000 ... again, on a larger scale of 9 days/bar.

You might be tempted to say that this top looks bad because its to scale of our most recent top. But use the "[" key to scroll back through time to a previous bear. You will not see the overall market topping (on a macro scale) that you are seeing today.

I predict Monday (7/9) is going to be very black. There might be a gasp or two, but this thing is going to re-test April's low and I believe it will fail the test. I've moved up all my sell-stop orders and expect all of them to fire off in the next week or so.

I could be wrong and I hope that I am. Good luck and best wishes.
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