UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Author: jjbklb Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 725892  
Subject: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/6/2013 11:20 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 2
" "According to noted criminologist Dr. Gary Kleck of Florida State University, every year some 650,000 Americans use firearms to thwart criminal assault. That's 12,500 a week."



Even Paul Blackman, research coordinator for the N.R.A., concedes that the advertisement "stretches the data." He adds, "I don't know of any criminological study that has tried to quantify the number of lives saved based on the number of guns that were successfully used for protection."



Kleck says his study did not consider the question of lives saved. Nor did he conclude, as the N.R.A. claims, that a crime or an assault had been "thwarted" in each of his estimated 645,000 (the ad upped it to 650,000) annual instances of a protective use of a gun. Kleck notes that his study may have included incidents in which a homeowner merely heard noisy youths outside his house, then shouted, "Hey, I've got a gun!" and never saw any possible attacker.



Still, Kleck estimates that an assailant or the defender actually fired a handgun in nearly half the cases. If so, 322,000 incidents each year involved great danger, and the potential victims credited their guns with protecting them. That is about ten times the number who die from guns annually in the U.S. "It is possible that guns save more lives than they cost," Kleck says.

His numbers are based on a 1981 poll conducted by Peter D. Hart Research Associates. It asked 1,228 U.S. voters whether in the previous five years any member of their household had "used a handgun, even if it was not fired, for self-protection or for the protection of property." Roughly 4% (about 50 people) said they had done so. Projecting that percentage onto the number of U.S. households in the five years covered by the poll (1976-81), Kleck came up with the estimate that handguns had been used protectively 3,224,880 times, or 645,000 a year. Comparing that with surveys that included rifles and shotguns, he estimated that all types of guns are used defensively about a million times a year."

Further the UCR is an annual FBI publication that summarizes the incidence and rate of reported CRIMES throughout the US. The NCVS or National Crime Victimization Survey is handled by the BJS. NEITHER of these reports are worth their weight in salt as any attempt to quantify crime is impossible, and self reporting is plagued with problems.
There are any number of sources, studies, and proposals as to the actual number of crimes thwarted by gun owners annually, you just need to be smart enough to ask the right questions.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: CelloSpice Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664667 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/6/2013 2:01 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
he estimated that all types of guns are used defensively about a million times a year.

Gee, I wonder how many of the perps died in these incidents?

Additionally, since those would technically be homicides, even if no charges are filed, I wonder how many of those are reported as homicides with guns as the cause of death? We need to subtract out the number of people who died from GSWs while they were committing a crime from the gun/death statistics. Those lives may be valuable, but their deaths should not be objectionable.


What do you want to bet those on the left are not subtracting those out of the numbers?

Print the post Back To Top
Author: CCinOC Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664684 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/6/2013 3:31 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
Gee, I wonder how many of the perps died in these incidents?

We shouldn't be wondering about these types of things. The government, if it's serious about creating legislation based on facts rather than whiny librul feelings, can keep accurate records. The technology is available, after all.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Colovion Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664895 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/7/2013 10:59 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 1
We shouldn't be wondering about these types of things. The government, if it's serious about creating legislation based on facts rather than whiny librul feelings, can keep accurate records. The technology is available, after all.

Yes, the technology is available to keep the stats... the problem is compiling them.

Part of what I do every day at work is compile crime stats. You'd think it would be as simple as "X number of things reported stolen, add them to the list, done!" Yes and no. I do essentially that every day, but invariably things happen down the line and I have to change those numbers. Reports are deemed unfounded and erased from the stats after the fact. Reports change from one file class to another during the investigation, which changes the stats. Then there's simply the fact that people don't bother reporting crimes at all or for a LONG time after the fact. For instance in December we had a student report the theft of their bike that happened in September. Technically that stat is carried in December though the incident actually happened in September. We've had instances where people waited YEARS to report crimes.

Granted homicides aren't going to go unnoticed for long generally speaking, though sexual assaults are very under-reported (and are certainly violent crimes). In fact if someone reports a sexual assault to the Sexual Assault Prevention and Awareness Center on campus there's no guarantee it will EVER be reported to any police agency and won't ever appear in the UCR stats if it isn't reported. One of the first things they are told is that it is up to them whether or not they want to report it to the police, which is fine and all until you get someone looking at the SAPAC numbers, looking at our numbers and getting irate that the numbers are different. We can only record what is reported to us, if someone doesn't report it then it will NEVER show up in our MICR stats (which are what we send to the state, and they send along to the FBI for them to compile the UCR numbers).

The points I'm trying to make are A. the stats are never "finalized", they're always a snapshot-in-time and are subject to change forever and B. even the stats given are certainly not the "actual" stats but merely what is known at that moment; what isn't reported or not yet reported won't show up in those stats of course.

Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post Back To Top
Author: arrete Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664909 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/7/2013 11:26 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
The points I'm trying to make are A. the stats are never "finalized", they're always a snapshot-in-time and are subject to change forever and B. even the stats given are certainly not the "actual" stats but merely what is known at that moment; what isn't reported or not yet reported won't show up in those stats of course.
---------------

Reminds me of a collegue who would say that the data were evolving, though in his case, he meant he wasn't finished fudging with them in Excel.

Back to your point, anyone who has worked with data and presenting the research has the problem of answering why some number is what it is. You can't jettison all the data as bad, though the Warmers seem to try.

arrete

Print the post Back To Top
Author: Colovion Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664917 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/7/2013 11:52 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
Back to your point, anyone who has worked with data and presenting the research has the problem of answering why some number is what it is. You can't jettison all the data as bad, though the Warmers seem to try.

Not that I can prove it, but one wonders how the numbers are "tweaked" in places like, oh, Detroit (a place known for rampant corruption and outright idiocy). I'd take any stats out of a place like that with a HUGE grain of salt. They don't even respond out to burglaries unless the burglar is on scene, how many people simply don't bother reporting them since the cops won't come out to take the report anyway? Lots I bet. Hell, I was rear-ended in a hit-and-run in Detroit and I didn't bother reporting it. I would have had to go to the station and tell them what I knew (which was very little, the other guy drove off in what was most certainly a stolen or borrowed car, didn't even get the plate), there was no damage to my car and nobody was hurt. I had better things to do than sit in a Detroit police precinct for hours (we were on our way to a dentist appointment, only got off the expressway because of construction), so I said eff it.

I'm sure the horrid crime stats coming out of Detroit are the tip of the iceberg. No doubt about it.

Print the post Back To Top
Author: CCinOC Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 664921 of 725892
Subject: Re: Gun Self Defense Info Date: 1/7/2013 12:16 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
They don't even respond out to burglaries unless the burglar is on scene, how many people simply don't bother reporting them since the cops won't come out to take the report anyway?

My house was robbed many years ago. My next door neighbor actually wrote down the licence plate number of the get-away car. When the police came out, they asked if I had contents insurance. I said yes. They said, "Then we suggest you make a claim against your insurance policy and we're done. You wouldn't want your items returned anyway; they'd be all scratched up."

Actually, that robbery was the best worst thing that ever happened to me. I realized how unimportant "things" are (relative to my personal safety) and I got every old item replaced with a newer version.

The only item I missed was my jewelry box that contained a couple of my son's baby teeth and a lock of hair from his first haircut.

Print the post Back To Top
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) | Ignore Thread Prev Thread | Next Thread
Advertisement